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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • CruisinForGold CruisinForGold Jun 1, 2011 10:37 AM Flag

    Sell Longs, Sell Short & Buy Puts

    NFLX is in a technically vulnerable position here. We are very near a temporary top in the price action.

    I would liqudate all my long holdings and sell short/buy puts for a pullback - IMHO.

    Hourly RSI, MACD & Stochastics are all divergent with this new 52-week high price action.

    Now's not the time to go long!!

    More to come on where this might lead.

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    • I think it is really acting weird,, and high volume. Fasten your seatbelts -- it may continue to be a bumpy ride today!

    • Still seeing the hourly divergences in all the indicators.

      I would be selling longs, buying shorts and buying puts on this move.

      I'm booting my long rentals against the 3 June 270 calls that I took on here.

      More downside action to come!


    • For better or worse - I'm buying some 17 June 275 puts here $9.4.!

      Hourly indicator's once again divergent on the price action.

      Also, rumor on the street that Moody's is going to cut US debt rating - which will hammer the market!

    • and to be fair the lower channel line is at 243.8x and rising.

      That channel line was hit on 17 May when the price action went to 231.11 low - again validating the channel's support.

    • Weroll..,

      My take is we get a jump back to retest the breakout area as I illuminated. No more than that.

      My call yesterday was on the extreme divergence I was seeing in the price action and my hourly signals - had to short that position it was too sweet!

      I posted in your thread "I want it to close at the low of the day"

      The targets for a short-term pullback (i.e. couple of days) would be the gap areas of 26 and 27 May. We achieved the 27 May and that was your signal to cash in any weekly puts and cover outright shorts. A 9 point swing from my topside call. If you were playing the weekly puts (as i was) it was 270/275's and the 270's paid +100% gains if you bought at the topside in price (273's) and the 275's.

      My bottomline is the price is going to the 319/320 objective. It's just a question of how it gets there and what loops/dips/climbs we make along the way. I backup to the cup-n-handle would be perfect IMHO - but NFLX stock price action doesn't always follow my opinion.

      I'm holding 1/3 of my 270 puts and NFLX common at an avg cost of 265.05. We'll see what happens tomorrow before I let either go!

    • Hey Cruise!
      My paired trade has been long NFLX, short CSTR! It's been quite frustrating to see CSTR holding up fairly well. However, it's starting to slowly retreat as longs are giving up. Not sure how much more stock buyback can hold up cstr.

      I still own the other half of NFLX position ( thanks to Lenny). Will sell at $300.
      Too much short interest to drop this baby.... :)

    • I believe NFLX is vulnerable here back to the breakout position of the cup-n-handle formation.

      Left edge (cup) is 247.55, right edge (cup) is 254.98, handle is 258.3x.

      Pullback would be to this trendline which is in the vicinity of 258.9x and rising about 0.12 per day. So I say a pullback into the 259-261 area is in the cards.

      We'll see from there how things standup or sit-down ;^)

      • 1 Reply to CruisinForGold
      • If you followed my lead into that buying surge in the 272.5 to 273.64 zone then you have a great short/put position built.

        You might try an upside stab rebound against your puts by going long NFLX in the 266.0 area. If this is a topping zone, like I think, then there will probably be some back and forth before the trend changes completely. So a bounce back to the 273-275 zone wouldn't suprise me in the least. Heck a 10 point overthrow has not been out of the norm before NFLX settles down and consolidates a gain.

        I have some weekly 270 puts that I intend to lock the profit by selling some here and going long the rest for a bounce play into Friday.

        In addition, I would hold no put weeklies beyond the morning trade tomorrow!

    • My RSI can go to 101...let's see 5 straight days of new RSI, new MACD, new stoch and new all time highs....but someday, yes someday, ya'll get that 10 per cent pull back ...only it's up at unseen levels ....

      • 1 Reply to robynrokn
      • Well I've been dealing with a very nasty windows virus that's taken out my trading platform, desktop, programs list and all kinds of things.

        But my Blackberry is still working!

        So those following along at home - we are near the targets outlined above. I would release the shorts (I.e. Cover) and sell the puts in the 262's. I need to get my charting real-time backup to see how we are handling this pullback before resuming a long position.

        And Marketbuy.. I thought of you when I saw CSTR with a 4x handle this am ;^)

        Good Luck

    • "liquidate" or sell, that would bring the price down. Oh good! Liquidate!

    • the puts certainly are rich and show that others think this thing is going down. I trust your judgement. Thanks for the heads-up. I hope we have already started our crater and that it continues soon.

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