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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • bg_rox2001 bg_rox2001 Jun 4, 2011 11:23 PM Flag

    NFLX Reiterated

    I am only breaking this out for visibility:

    "Ok, I get it, people have been saying NFLX SP is unjustified. I have to be honest, I have historically avoided this thing. I always felt that this stock could run to 1000 or tank to 25. It really all depended on competition and sub growth.

    I have been following these guys since 2004. This is really the first time I feel this thing is about to plummet. IF, and I mean IF, in fact, Apple and MSFT are both announcing similiar competitive services this upcoming week, NFLX is in SERIOUS trouble. IF, and I mean IF, they are both false rumors, then this thing may very well continue running to 300-350.

    Technically this is a screaming buy. Fundamentally, this is a screaming sell. In the words of Cramer, "Netflix continues to look cheap when compared to LinkedIn." This basically sums up the ridiculous runs in 2000, and will eventually sum up this run 5 years from now.

    Ideally, all tech stocks would trade on realistic PEs based on growth, margins, and IP. In reality, this never happens. It does not apply to new tech. Netflix is somehow still considered "new tech". ANYTHING associated with social media, the 'cloud', or Facebook, is unrealistically skyrocketing.

    It's only a matter of time before these guys come back to earth. It would be nice to be able to time it perfectly, it is anyones guess when it will happen, but for the first time, I feel right now, based on market conditions, is the time to dump NFLX.

    The technicals will not matter when Apple says "we are launching a streaming TV service over our iCloud for free".

    You and I are retail traders. Just when you think you know what's going to happen, it doesn't. It's a guessing game. Right now, I'm guessing this is about to head south. "

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