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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • nesta3021 nesta3021 Sep 18, 2011 5:38 PM Flag

    Mining and Schweitz

    what're you guys thinking for this week? I got some big ideas, but mrkt volatility could be off the charts this week in either direction.

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    • Trend is still down. Major cracks are surfacing within NFLX's business model and many investors simply don't want to hold the NFLX bag heading into earnings season with quite a lot of uncertainty on the horizon.

      IMHO- Lower subscriptions will persist for months to come especially when some of the big players like Google, Walmart, Dish, Amazon, and Apple take over their marketshare and provide better content.

      In a nutshell, NFLX can't afford to get the good content that people want to watch. Mail costs are going up while mail service will be reduced. This does not bode well for NFLX who relies on speedy delivery and cheap postage costs.

    • thats what i thought. i like how this is playing out. don't feel like I need to be too cautious either.

    • Alright. So I assume we are still full speed ahead, no?

    • he doesn't write about individual equities. (acutally its multiple people posting under one assumed name)

      go troll the site for a few days. form your own opinion (some of their views -- e.g. that hyperinflation is imminent -- is a bridge too far). but, do not not visit.

    • never heard of those last three :)

      w/out zh, who knows where my mind would be. probably be on the long side of this trade ;0

    • Hey Nesta....Yes..I read it. I also read marketwatch and Bloomberg, WSJ, etc for a steady stream of news.

    • Asian and Australian markets are currently trading sharply lower based on European fears. Financials are taking a hit. The Euro is down. Greece is in "crisis talks" which does not sound very promising for the market bulls. Pre-market is lower by over 1%. All of NFLX'S suppports were taken out last week. Institutions were selling. Downgrades on Friday made it even worse. As long as futures remain red until opening bell, I could see NFLX dropping to 150, perhaps even falling to lower support at 148.

    • i will maintain my core put positions. I'm using TZOO as my guide and see a quick decline. My core puts are positioned for the long term decline to sub-100. I'm going to start taking some more risky short term bets on a rapid decline. may hedge and play them as a DOTM call put strangle.

      also think that momo rotation is on and amzn has a great chance of absorbing some of the stupid money that left nflx last week. thinking of buying some AMZN280 lotto tix.

    • I am guessing a mixed week with some pressure to the downside. It will be hard for the U.S. market to be green all week like it did last week. Europe and the Fed will still weigh on the market. Greece needs to shore up more money by October. Currently, there are serious concerns about capitalization levels within Europe's banks, especially if Greece can't fulfill their financial responsibilities.

      U.S. housing data will likely be weak. Weekly jobless claims should not be impressive. Fed's operation twist will probably help the market but less so than QE3. Obama will likely make some entitlement cuts and defense cuts.

      From my earlier post today:

      Last week the market saw 5 consecutive days of positive trading. Will that positive trend continue? There are lingering concerns about European debt problems in European countries such as Greece and Italy. Renewed worries persist throughout the U.S. about European leaders choosing to "kick the debt can" down the road rather than acting decisively and tackling the debt issues head on. The major concern at this time revolves around European banks being stretched to the max due to their mounting debt problems which begs the question: Will these big European banks continue to loan more in the future even though huge sums of their money are already tied up in looming debts from countries such as Greece? The implications of a Greek default are still not yet fully known. Europe accounts for roughly 20% of exports from the U.S. and a recession in Europe has the potential to bring down the U.S. and global economies.

      Meanwhile, the U.S. housing market remains weak. And the U.S. unemployment picture is not looking promising either, most especially after it was just announced that Bank of America is planning to shed 30,000 jobs as they further downsize. Action from the Fed in the coming days should provide the market with a little boost and more stability; however, QE 3 is not likely to occur. Fiscal policy will begin to come into focus and take some shape next week as President Obama weighs in about looming budget cuts. Congress will be expected to figure out a way to deal with Obama's proposed American Jobs Act. And the Super Committee will begin to work together to figure out a new way to trim down the U.S. deficit before the end of the year

 
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