There was an article yesterday or today about how unsuccessful Google TV (YouTube) has been in terms of real content delivery. Basically described them as 2-3 years behind NetFlix...sorry would provide the link but I don't have time to go searching for it again...If you're interested, with a little effort you should have no problem finding it.
The other thing that is perhaps even more convincing is that several recent articles said that approx. 35-40 of all (ALL) Internet Bandwidth is attributable to streaming video (ALL) and that Netflix STILL has 75-80% of ALL OF THAT TRAFFIC. They may fall in the future (I think that their international expansion...WHICH IS ON-GOING), but they haven't fallen yet. Virtually ALL video delivery services (CABLE, SATELLITE, Internet and even free airwave TV) have seen marginal declines in the last 3-6 months...especially those who charge for their services. I spoke to a friend at DISH Networks the other day and he said that their pay per view services have plummeted and their premium channels (HBO, Showtime, STARZ, etc.) are down 10-15% over the past several months. BUT, go back and look at what ACTUALLY HAPPENED to Netflix even with their series of P/R faux pas...Not much, membership down 800k (versus the 600k they anticipated) over approx. 25mil...(About 3.3%) while both REVENUES AND NET INCOME WERE BREAKING RECORDS.
So I'm in the camp saying that what happened to Netflix stock was NOT competitive threats, but poor P/R, mishandling their price increase, a very cautious outlook (OVERLY CAUTIOUS) and pure panic...Everything that had happened was already baked into the price of the stock and people grossly overreacted to their guidance...THEY ARE A GROWTH MACHINE that is regrouping for the next massive growth spurt...YouTube is NOT A THREAT...Amazon and Apple are marginal threats but should be watched carefully...None of them have achieved 10% of Netflix's marketshare nor will they for a long time, if ever.