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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • betsypower betsypower Jan 20, 2012 5:55 PM Flag

    A bit of concern for the shorts, me included.

    The estimate of the analyst is set so $0.56, compared to the original $1.11.
    It became quite an easy estimate to hit, considering that in 2009 Q3, NFLX hit $0.70.

    It seems like it may actually hit or beat the super low estimate set by the analysts.
    If it misses, it will crash big time and stay low for a long time.
    If it hits, it may also go crazy ah but cool down the following day after knowing the detail.
    I'm thinking what I should do on that day.
    I plan to do something big and exciting.

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    • but highly doubt so.
      It is very likely to think that Reed tries to overplay the loss when the price increase fails.
      He probably didn't realise that the stock is gonna get punished that hard.
      My concern now is he 'over exaggerated ' the loss, convince to sell some shares at $70 to raise fund for new content, only to know that he will definitely hit target.
      It's quite a scam.
      If this is the case, shorts will get hit big time.
      So my feeling is, the upside of this stock is not gonna be high, at max $120+ but the downside is DEEP....probably low $50.
      Reed tries to be a Steve Jobs, so you can be sure that he will try to play some games with the media and try to screw the shorts (dun mind my language).
      In real, the company is in trouble with high competition all around BUT that will not stop him from playing games. He is afterall the founder, the's his duty to do what he needs to make sure this brand continue and goes higher, even if he has to 'manipulate' the stock market in a legal way.

      I believe it will crash but not sure I trust their ER reports.

    • Now that options has passed us by, the price action before earnings is going to be based on the old fashioned method, FEAR AND GREED

    • your positions in this stock.
      I'm planning on a big bet (my standard, not necessarily big to others) on this stock.
      So it's difficult for me to hold this position thru the ER announcement.
      I will release all my short position b4 ER day and initiate new short position AH after the announcement.
      I will not be able to make as much profit as I want but with bigger bet, the profit will be sizable.
      I feel safer with this move.

    • I don't feel sorry for them. We all pay for what we don't know. I have and you will too. The information is out there for us to learn, no matter what side we are on. Put your money down, place your bets, and see what happens.

    • Also, don't you think NFLX was deliberately raised to the high 90 level so that hedge funds/ MM can put in shorts, buy puts cheaper... because truthfully they know that NFLX will tank? They were fooling the retail longs and making them buy into NFLX, when they were there shorting it on the opposite end?

      I mean hedge funds/ MM can't be THAT bullish on this stock and be that foolish to think that NFLX actually has a future.

      Just thinking that this was the plan from the get-go.

      Plus, NFLX doesn't want the stock to tank even more from the 60/70's level ... since that will definitely bring their stock to 40s asap.

      What do you think?

    • Hey Betsy, may the force and power be with us.

      Are you pretty confident that the stock will tank AH on Wed?
      You seem confident, but from your first post thread... you seemed a little bit unsure.

      Are you around 90% sure on the short/ stock tank...
      and perhaps 10% unsure/ what if?

      I really do hope NFLX tanks.
      This stock has been manipulated way too much!!

    • I only know it's early Feb, forgot to exact date.
      Will bother to find out if NFLX hits the estimate on Wed, which is extremely unlikely.

    • Do you know the exact date of when the Starz contract will be over?

      I forgot about Starz.

    • >>Actually I don't feel sorry for them on second thought. It gives me great pleasure just thinking about it.<<

      Well chowpongfoo, I guess that makes you an a-hole.
      You should do well in corporate America.

    • The stock will crash even lower when the Starz contract officially end in Feb.
      May the force be with you.

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