NFLX would seem to have some, emphasize some, negotiating leverage. Where's Starrz going to replace the funds they are seemingly turning down? Hulu? Amazon? According to the bear case this is a black hole, but these other parties are going to outbid? Maybe, here and there. Amazon we just learned is a bit earnings challenged so they may not blow the doors off with extravagant licensing deals. NFLX still has a decent shot at retaining plenty of content. Starrz ain't the be-all end-all of content anyway; they may be over-rating themselves and Hastings has not caved to excessive demands. That could be construed as canny negotiating.
Btw, since the Starrz renewal issue is a centerpiece of the dismal bear case, what do you suspect will/would be the reaction on the street if NFLX eventually gets it done anyway?
"what do you suspect will/would be the reaction on the street if NFLX eventually gets it done anyway?"
If the contract were renegotiated with Starz at a not-too-unreasobale price (I have no idea what that is, at the moment), I think many of those with bearish views would reconsider. (And I would have another reason for not giving up my day job!)
But did I not see somewhere that Starz is itself an aggregator, to some extent, and that Netflix is doing now deals with the primary sources of some of the content formerly licensed via Starz?