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Netflix (NFLX - UNDERPERFORM): Streaming Service to Launch in Nordic Countries by
End of 2012; Will Lead to Q4 Loss, as Expected; Maintaining Estimates, UNDERPERFORM Rating, $45 PT
• Last night, Netflix announced that it will launch in Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and
Finland in late 2012. Netflix previously announced in its Investor Letters that it would open an
additional attractive European market in Q4. The Nordic streaming service will feature a low
monthly price and an array of content (Hollywood, local, and global television shows and movies),
with many titles available in high definition with Dolby Digital Plus surround sound. Netflix will
announce details about content, pricing, and supported devices closer to the actual launch.
• We expect Netflix to penetrate the Nordic countries at a similar rate to its UK
penetration. With a high education rate and high household incomes in the Nordic countries, Netflix
should be able to avoid many of the challenges that it has experienced in Latin America, including
low device penetration, weak Internet infrastructure, and consumer payment challenges. In addition,
Nordic viewers will likely have a higher level of proficiency in the English language, potentially
limiting dependence on subtitles, and they endure long winters, increasing the need for in-home
• Nordic expansion is expected to lead to a loss in Q4. After earning $0.11 in Q2, and
guiding to $(0.10) – 0.14 in Q3, Netflix expects a Q4 loss, likely due to the marketing expense and
content costs associated with the Nordic launch. However, the Nordic launch will likely have a
limited impact on top-line growth in the near term due to a stronger affinity for localized
content, particularly movies, than in Canada (Netflix’s first international launch), and a smaller
population (≈ 25 million) than Latin America and the British Isles (the second and third
• Interestingly, the Netflix announcement mentioned “TV shows” before “movies”, and
its domestic television advertising has adopted the same order. We think that this is a subtle
acknowledgment that Netflix will offer an increasing mix of lower-cost television programming, and
will continue to play hardball with movie studios on constantly increasing rights fees for
Hollywood movie content.
• Maintaining our FY:12 estimates, which already reflect the Q4 European launch. We expect
revenue of $3.65 billion and
EPS of $0.03, compared to consensus for revenue of $3.61 billion and EPS of $0.01. There is no
detailed financial guidance.
• In our view, FY:13 consensus EPS of $0.95 remains too high. The company has clearly
articulated its strategy of alternating periods of expansion (losses) with periods of
profitability, making sustained profitability elusive. We expect Netflix to operate at roughly
break-even until it has completed its international land grab later this decade. At our FY:13 EPS
estimate of $0.50, the stock closed yesterday at roughly 120x earnings, and should consensus
estimates drop closer to our estimate, we think that shares could trade closer to our $45 price
• We continue to view full-year domestic streaming net adds guidance as unrealistic. Netflix
expects 2012 domestic streaming net additions of ≈ 7 million. With 1.74 million domestic streaming
net adds in Q1 and 0.53 million more in Q2, Netflix must add approximately 4.73 million over the
second half of the year to hit its target. This implies a 32/68 split between
1H and 2H, even more aggressive than its historical 41/59 split.
• Maintaining our UNDERPERFORM rating and 12-month price target of $45. Our price target is
15x our sustainable EPS estimate of $3, which we believe is attainable (albeit aggressive) only if
Netflix forsakes growth at all costs and raises prices. Our multiple is in line with the company’s
long-term growth rate.
• Risks to the attainment of our share price target include: a sudden increase in subscriber
growth, declining competition from other movie rental competitors, lower than expected costs for
content, technology development and deployment, and improving macroeconomic factors.