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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

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  • singhlion2001 singhlion2001 Oct 17, 2012 1:46 PM Flag

    ARREST MARY SCHAPIRO/ROBERT KHUZAMI/ROBERT COOK/GORDON FULLER SCAM GANG AT S.E.C.: SEND IN NAVY SEALS

    New slogan in usa

    wall street is now pure fraud street casino and rigged with all scam legislation against 99% working class and all fraud loot protection for corporate thugs and bankster financial terrorists at s.e.c enforced and all loot manipulation scam weapons at their disposal

    loot/scam/bang usa 99% working class pension contributions in billions with dark pools and high frequency trading machines with fraud price/volume manipulation without any fear

    if, by mistake you are caught? No problem come to mary schapiro/robert khuzami/robert cook scam watch parasites at s.e.c and pay little fine, no trials and keep your loot in billions and you are free to go back and start your scam loot asap.................

    gene burnett - jump you f*#kers (a song for wall street)

    cramer manipulation

    youtube videos

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • WEDBUSH notes
      Netflix (NFLX - UNDERPERFORM): Streaming Service to Launch in Nordic Countries by
      End of 2012; Will Lead to Q4 Loss, as Expected; Maintaining Estimates, UNDERPERFORM Rating, $45 PT

      • Last night, Netflix announced that it will launch in Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and
      Finland in late 2012. Netflix previously announced in its Investor Letters that it would open an
      additional attractive European market in Q4. The Nordic streaming service will feature a low
      monthly price and an array of content (Hollywood, local, and global television shows and movies),
      with many titles available in high definition with Dolby Digital Plus surround sound. Netflix will
      announce details about content, pricing, and supported devices closer to the actual launch.

      • We expect Netflix to penetrate the Nordic countries at a similar rate to its UK
      penetration. With a high education rate and high household incomes in the Nordic countries, Netflix
      should be able to avoid many of the challenges that it has experienced in Latin America, including
      low device penetration, weak Internet infrastructure, and consumer payment challenges. In addition,
      Nordic viewers will likely have a higher level of proficiency in the English language, potentially
      limiting dependence on subtitles, and they endure long winters, increasing the need for in-home
      entertainment.

      • Nordic expansion is expected to lead to a loss in Q4. After earning $0.11 in Q2, and
      guiding to $(0.10) – 0.14 in Q3, Netflix expects a Q4 loss, likely due to the marketing expense and
      content costs associated with the Nordic launch. However, the Nordic launch will likely have a
      limited impact on top-line growth in the near term due to a stronger affinity for localized
      content, particularly movies, than in Canada (Netflix’s first international launch), and a smaller
      population (≈ 25 million) than Latin America and the British Isles (the second and third
      international launches).

      • Interestingly, the Netflix announcement mentioned “TV shows” before “movies”, and
      its domestic television advertising has adopted the same order. We think that this is a subtle
      acknowledgment that Netflix will offer an increasing mix of lower-cost television programming, and
      will continue to play hardball with movie studios on constantly increasing rights fees for
      Hollywood movie content.

      • Maintaining our FY:12 estimates, which already reflect the Q4 European launch. We expect
      revenue of $3.65 billion and
      EPS of $0.03, compared to consensus for revenue of $3.61 billion and EPS of $0.01. There is no
      detailed financial guidance.

      • In our view, FY:13 consensus EPS of $0.95 remains too high. The company has clearly
      articulated its strategy of alternating periods of expansion (losses) with periods of
      profitability, making sustained profitability elusive. We expect Netflix to operate at roughly
      break-even until it has completed its international land grab later this decade. At our FY:13 EPS
      estimate of $0.50, the stock closed yesterday at roughly 120x earnings, and should consensus
      estimates drop closer to our estimate, we think that shares could trade closer to our $45 price
      target.

      • We continue to view full-year domestic streaming net adds guidance as unrealistic. Netflix
      expects 2012 domestic streaming net additions of ≈ 7 million. With 1.74 million domestic streaming
      net adds in Q1 and 0.53 million more in Q2, Netflix must add approximately 4.73 million over the
      second half of the year to hit its target. This implies a 32/68 split between
      1H and 2H, even more aggressive than its historical 41/59 split.

      • Maintaining our UNDERPERFORM rating and 12-month price target of $45. Our price target is
      15x our sustainable EPS estimate of $3, which we believe is attainable (albeit aggressive) only if
      Netflix forsakes growth at all costs and raises prices. Our multiple is in line with the company’s
      long-term growth rate.

      • Risks to the attainment of our share price target include: a sudden increase in subscriber
      growth, declining competition from other movie rental competitors, lower than expected costs for
      content, technology development and deployment, and improving macroeconomic factors.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
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