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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • wordjitsu@ymail.com wordjitsu Nov 11, 2012 12:13 PM Flag

    Upward Consolidation

    I'm no expert, but regardless of the crash from its highs to the sub-100 territory it's in now, NFLX looks like it is spiking higher and the range-bound trading we've seen between 74 and 80 has been consolidating upwards, with higher near-term highs and higher near-term lows, creating a floor from which it looks like it wants to launch another 7 to 10 points to near-90, and that's just on it's current momentum with no additional fuel (i.e., more substantive buyout news). Anyone see the same thing?

    So, I don't really understand the exuberance of shorts who celebrate what deceptively seems like stagnation of the NFLX share price in this trading range. All things remaining the same, it looks like it's about to bury shorts another 5-15%. And that could happen in less than 24 hours. Yikes!

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • wordjitsu@ymail.com wordjitsu Nov 15, 2012 3:19 PM Flag

      Consolidated securely at top of 75-80 range. Netflix rocket fueling on $80+ launchpad. All this in a murderous broader market. I'm no expert, but were I short, I'd cover promptly NOW. Don't risk an end of week rally to push this 3 to 4 points higher tomorrow (bucking opex), or some AH or pre-market takeover news to zoom this 5-8 points into the stratosphere, or some Monday news like a BID @ 120+. Heck, by Monday morning the market will realize the sky isnt falling re the "fiscal cliff" and that, along with opex out of the way, will send this 3+ points higher.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • One reviewer commented that Technical Analysis is useless with NFLX. That's not accurate. You two may have different timing horizons.

      Three or four times since January the stock has shown breakout AND subsequently jumped on swing trade action. So it's smart looking for those situations as you are. Does NFLX's current range bound pattern signal an upturn? Not in my opinion, not until it actually breaks.

      It's a judgment call. Earlier when NFLX broke from a 3-4 week trend it was clear-cut. Consolidating in a $5 range much less so.

    • Jeff Uscher:

      =========================

      In fact, looking through the commentary on Icahn's interest in Netflix, it was hard to find anyone who had anything positive to say about it.

      Which brings us to another point. The market is short NFLX in a big way.

      As of Oct. 15, 2012, there were 16.2 million shares of NFLX short, equal to 29.1% of shares outstanding. That's more than two days of trading at current elevated volume.

      In addition, there are another 26.7 million shares worth of out-of-the-money put options with strike prices between $60 and $77.50.

      There is only one way to close a short position in a stock-you have to buy it back. What we have here is an Icahn-inspired short squeeze in Netflix. NFLX shorts are scrambling to cover as quickly as possible, putting more buying pressure on the Netflix share price.

      How far can the short squeeze run?

      It looks like NFLX will have to take a breather around the 200-day simple moving average, which currently stands at $82.35. With Icahn in the game, NFLX could break above the 200-day simple moving average but we are likely to see consolidation around that level first, as the current round of short covering subsides.

      ======================

      Since this was written, Netflix short interest is now over 17 million shares. "...looking through the commentary on Icahn's interest in Netflix, it was hard to find anyone who had anything positive to say about it." And look at how active the shorts are on this board trying to control the story. THEY ARE DESPERATE TO THE EXTREME. Imagine Yankee Stadium filled with shorts, their bowels ready to explode and only one bathroom for relief. That's the kind of panic which will happen if anyone makes a bid for Netflix because if we have one bid, we will have many bids. The Sandvine reports makes it clear that there is no number two to Netflix since Hulu and Amazon Prime are 1/18th of Netty's streaming volume.

    • You're right you are no expert. Ready to jump another 10? Range bound trading? I think what you are referring to is the manipulation that we have all seen for the past week or so. Do you think it is normal for a 75 stock to trade in a 5 dollar range and hit the top and bottom of that range every day in a given week? Thanks for the additional certification that this thing is headed south big time in a hurry.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
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