They would consider it. This was confirmed by Bloomberg last night. So now we have Netflix willing to sell if the price is right. We have a company which probably holds the record for the most rumors of a buyout, so we know there are buyers. We have Icahn who has arrived on the scene to get a deal done and is all of a sudden the biggest Netflix shareholder. We have interested companies that have the money that Netflix needs to secure the position as the leading streaming company for a very long time. We have the perfect storm for a buyout.
I don't think this momentum is purely based on the buy out rumours.. understand one thing its in the play because ppl able to see far in the future(2-3 years) are finding nflx very attractive. I concur with you that Reed would most likely prefer not selling it...but once thats established, in my opnion would just correct the price a little(15%) in short term.. in long term (1-2 years) this stock will keep moving up because of the revenues growing every quarter..and very honestly none of other so called competitors are even close that nflx can see them in rear view mirror.
For Amazon with its deep pocket it def makes good proposition to acquire nflx and let it run independently like zappos and that way they can get rid of amazon prime and that whole stupid approach of trying to monetize prime with tying its subscription with prime shopping....
i have more faith in the ability of companies which are well focused - AAPL = Hardware, GOOG = search (lately its also trying to be everywhere..but i like that there not compromising the core in the process), NFLX = monthly subscription based streaming service. hastings has boldly resisted adding a la carte..and i like that as that has pushed them to innovate the personalization of the contents based on user's taste and trying to come as close as possible to predict what user will like it, which eventually will help them cut down on the cost of contents by buying the license to stream just certain no_of_times/no_of_users.... if interested.. check out recent patent msft has filed for its kinect ... its like groupon kind of thing for acquiring contents...buying it enough that it caters to the users most likely looking for it..
above everything this a growth company so you can't strictly try to apply the fundamentals of value investing.. you need to dig deep enough to exactly understand the sector/technology.....and predict based on it that how it will shape up in the future.. in the process of growing over the last decade NFLX has smartly established itself as strong brand and just look around its everywhere.... roku further adds to its exclusivity (explicit netflix button)
btw keep your eyes on roku..its going public next year and its worth investing imho..
If you are interested in LONG term, 2-3 years, wait until it hits $40 to buy.
NFLX is in a dangerous position with content obligations, negative cash flow, and stalled sub growth. Their virtuous cycle is totally stalled out.
Notice they can't afford any more content per the last letter to investors. If they can't afford more content, just how are they going to attract more subs and keep the ones they have?
There's no reason to pay $80 a share for such a risky investment, that's the market consensus.
Icahn bought his options at $57 when he thought it was cheap. Chasing at 80 after a 40% run-up from 57 is foolish.
Fundamentals have not changed, Reed does not want to sell, and won't sell for less than probably $200/share. He thinks in 5 years Netflix will be at $200/share again as a dominant global streaming distributor. Many say no way, and based on current earnings, total customer value analysis, and company assets, it's worth