All this hype, so they can go for a secondary soon!
The ISP providers already have content delivery systems coming up, and I-Tunes will soon be their competitor.
Broker advised going short here, and I usually do not like short positions, but this maybe the short to own into Q1 2013.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
To be fair, they do generate 900M in revenues, an ever increasing amount goes to pay the streaming obligations. This is a company that depends on growth.
If you think they grow to 30M domestic subs BEFORE 2016, then they have a chance.
If you think the international growth continues despite competition, then they have a chance.
If you think their streaming growth has already slowed, and will continue to get even slower with Amazon, Redbox, Comcast, Hulu, iTunes, Nook Media each stealing a small market share, and that other movie studios would never allow Netflix to become the iTunes of movies (where a single distributor dominates over content studios), and that international streaming, which has already been stated by Reed as a multi-year content commitment (they can't pull out without losing billions), then you realized their chances of success is very small, and the stock should reflect that.
I am not saying that NFLX is definitely going bankrupt (it might though), I'm just saying the fair value going into all this uncertainty and lack of profits for at least 3 years should make the share price ~$45-$50.
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Absolutely is an opinion. It would be a lot easier if Netflix actually disclosed the real numbers so people don't have to guess at how much something like Disney is really going to cost them.
I find their content to be wholly lacking. Will Disney change that....yes obviously....in 2016.
NFLX movie content beyond that is putrid at best. If you want to watch TV re-runs....then NFLX is definitely the place for you. I am not that type of person.
Once Amazon begins to seriously compete for content, Verizon/Redbox start up and other competitors (domestic and international) enter the fray, the battle for content is going to get VERY EXPENSIVE.
The winners are going to be the content providers...not the streamers. Streaming value will be commoditized over time.
My long long term bet is that someone like a Disney will have their own streaming channel and will receive all the revenue directly. Why deal with NFLX when you don't have to?
Couldn't respond to your other post for some reason.....so I'm responding to it here.
Yes I do have it.
I also have Amazon Prime.
Will look at redbox/verizon when it comes out.....and then make a decision between them and netflix.
I got netflix about a year ago. I am the only one of my family that ever really uses it. It's a very small fee...so I've just left it there.
There have been entire months when I haven't used it at all.
I got amazon prime when I wanted the shipping....and have found that to be OK at best.
To be honest....my family uses redbox more than any of the other services....so if their streaming is remotely acceptable I will be disposing of neflix for the redbox/verizon offering.
The company knows the stock would swoon. How would syndicators even price it? I doubt a secondary is on the table UNLESS accompanied by major revenue producing or partnership financing news. There are a lot of ways to skin this cat.