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That deal, beginning in 2016, will give Netflix exclusive U.S. subscription TV rights to first-run movies and features from Disney’s various studios. That was good enough to give Netflix’s stock a 14% gain from Monday’s closing price. See: Netflix shares spike on news of Disney pact.
However, that Disney deal wasn’t enough for Caris & Co. analyst David Miller, who on Thursday cut his rating on the company’s stock to below average — a nicer way of saying sell — over concerns about Netflix’s margins and subscriber growth rates until the Disney deal takes effect.
Miller estimates that Netflix will pay $300 million a year for the Disney content. He also believes that was the price Netflix refused to pay last year, when a content deal with Starz, which also included Disney content, came up for renewal. For its part, Netflix hasn’t disclosed the financial terms of the new Disney deal
“The price paid for this content loudly underscores what we’ve been saying about the pickle in which Netflix finds itself,” Miller said in a research note. “If all deals end up non-exclusive, Netflix opens itself up to a price war.”