I covered my short yesterday with a gain from 102, had every intention of holding thru earnings, but got cold feet based on history of 4Q earnings pops (see new SA article), and weak earnings priced in. Any modest beat on earnings or subs send it higher, mainly on short covering. Also very dangerous shorting anything in this bull market, even #$%$ like nflx.
Dry powder now and happy to short again around 130 if this turd gets back to it.
A lot of the big earnings pop comes from procrastinators that buy gifts of Netflix. They didn't promote heavily this quarter and then went off line 12/24 and 12/25. Significant parts of New York were without power for a week after sandy as well. I think they will miss on Domestic subs just on these two events alone. Scandinavia search dropped 80% after the initial pop, that is compared to 60% for UK, Canada and Latin america - they may miss on subs there, too. I am pretty sure they cut marketing from their normal end of year TV campaign blitz to keep earnings in line. I think they are in trouble domestically and International is not ramping up fast enough. Should be in the $50's after earnings or lower, but who knows after these schmucks on wall street ran it up from $58 after a bad forecast last quarter.
Sentiment: Strong Sell