Undoubtedly, Reed Hastings is an extremely bright man. He has built a great company, and I am a happy paid streaming customer. Reed has a great track record with his two prior public companies.
However, he is a "genius" as a manipulator/spinner of the financial results of NFLX, and one of the slickest salesman I've ever witnessed. Know any Eskimos? Well, they bought his snow, and he left them with a smile on their faces.
Bear in mind that quarterly financial results can be "massaged" and Reed is a master of these techniques. Take a look at the financial data in the 8K. Look at free cash flow vs. reported earnings. Take a look a 2011 Q4 vs. 2012 Q4. Isn't this the method one uses to gauge a company's progress? Look at the growth of "paid subscribers" vs "total subscribers" (which includes free subscriptions).
Ben Graham coined a phrase I will never forget: In the short run a stock is valued by a "voting machine"; in the longer run it's valued by a "weighting machine". Look at NFLX's 70% rise this week, their deteriorating free cash flow, their huge off-balance sheet liabilities and consider Ben Graham. As smart as Reed Hastings is, Ben Graham sets the standard in financial analysis.
Carl Icahn is somewhere in the middle and he saw value at $50-60; Does he see the same value at $170?
i will be looking for a fake morning pop on Mon though, from 930 am - 945 or 10 am. MMs usually pull that to fool the retail small guy into thinking that the stock will rally. Then from 10 am - 4pm the stock could drop all day long.
so look for morning strengths around 945-10 am to short. dont be fooled by a headfake spike by the MMs
Carl Icahn is a very smart vulture capitalist. He always flies in, eats the meat of the near dead, and then flies out again to look for the next target. He does not stick around. I would not be surprised that he has sold all his positions already. Especially a large chunk of his positions were options. Options are good for short-term, not for long-term. He could have taken all the profits and looking for the next target already. Perhaps AAPL? Now AAPL has come down a lot just like when NFLX was down a lot before. AAPL is a bargain with tons of cash. Smart ones buy when a stock is low and sell when it is high, not the other way around.
quarterly financial results can be "massaged"? gee I prefer the term creative accounting, but shhh...dont let the longs know anything about it. What the sheep dont know wont hurt 'em on the way to the slaughterhouse is another saying too, right?