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Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) Message Board

  • infoanalysis infoanalysis Jan 27, 2013 2:47 PM Flag

    Peculiar turn of events

    No one could have possibly predicted this meteoric recovery of NFLX.

    Few million in earnings above estimates results in over 3.5 billion increase in market capitalization. The earnings were exactly the same as last earnings at .13! How were the analysts deceived into expecting so much less for Q1? The last time Nflx traded at these levels, the price preceding the move were 1.26 before it crashed downward and .77 as it jettisoned upward prior -- when they were deriving the majority of the earnings from the now defunct mailing model. The last earnings was not spectacular. What new innovation on a par with blockbuster drug approval warrants this move?

    Where is all this volume coming from?

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    • The next report on Short % Float should be interesting. It was last reported at 26%, down from as high as 35% a few months ago.

      But with 70% of the stock held by institutions, obviously several cleared to cash. Equally obvious, there was a lot of interday churn.

    • I agree this was one of the most masterful pieces of Wall Street trickery every pulled. I noticed the same thing about flat sequential earnings. Essentially they did a remarkable job of convincing Wall Street analysts about the loss only to massively over deliver. I would tend to agree with another poster that a secondary offer is almost a certainty- but not sure that necessary creates a shorting opportunity- as Wall Street will race to upgrade. I suspect however that any secondary will be priced well below the market price- so probably a short term drop.

      Monday will be interesting- haven't seen such a short squeeze since Volkswagon a few years ago with that whole thing with Porshe.

      My guess is tomorrow is the first day Insiders can sell after earnings- as many Silicon Valley companies make insiders wait three business days before opening the window. BEAR that in mind.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

 
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