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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • ymb_losers ymb_losers Feb 20, 2013 1:12 PM Flag

    SA: Netflix is a Fragile House of Cards, Wow, great article!

    And it really tanked the stock when it came out at 11:42.
    Bounced back a bit but should close near lows thanks to this VERY persuasive article.
    How longs and shorts must read.
    Then after you'll have no excuse for not being on the right side.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • That is an excellent article.

      It does, however, focus solely on the accounting perspective. It does not address the possibility of a secondary(entirely possible). A 3million share secondary at these prices nets $550million+.

      It also discounts the explosive growth potential of a true paradigm shift. By explosive I mean the possibility of 4 or 5 million new subs for this first quarter. Also a real possibility.

      To say nothing of first mover advantage, new revenue streams(pay for stream ala Amazon), buyout, streaming live sports.

      Lots of possibilities un"accounted" for.

      • 1 Reply to birdiebinger
      • First, what large tutes would want shares at this inflated price.
        The last time they issued a secondary was late '11 at $70 to TR Price after it tanked.
        You might get some interested close to $100 now.
        4-5M subs in traditionally weak 1Q is beyond fantasy.
        There's a better possibility that HoC netted zero new paying subs, just one month freebies to consume part or all of it then poof, nothing to show for a $100m investment.
        Streaming live sports? Do you know anything about the cost of that?
        Major networks pay many billions per year for that!
        Are you talking about college soccer or something of similar limited interest like much of Netflix content?

        Sentiment: Sell

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