The mkt will be in a panic mode strating next week if nothing happens regarding sequester cuts. A lot of households will go thru budget cuts and subscribing NFLX will be the last thing in their mind. I do not see how economy will grow and the stock price will move up. Short term mkt correction will begin next week. Anyone disagree?
I agree with most of your thesis, but not the Netflix part. Netflix is relatively cheap so I don't believe they will cut there. I think it is more likely that they will keep Netflix and dump their cable provider. That doesn't change the fact that NFLX is a terrible stock to own. If not for people like Cramer and other pumpers this thing would tank. It's hard to tank when Cramer has a bunch of blind followers and he spouts out every day that it's going to $250 and that Apple should buy NFLX. The people who listen to him think it's going to infinity and have no idea that despite his claims he does not pay attention to fundamentals at all. If you were to read his books, which are not bad at all, he does not practice what he preaches. For starters, huge insider selling, bad balance sheet, accounting fraud, wait a few quarters when a company misses earnings, don't buy companies based on buyout speculation, etc. Once you get a TV show all fundamentals go out the window. He is crazy enough to make statements now like Chipotle should buy McDonalds or Cisco should buy Apple.
Like your rationale but I like when Cramer pumps stocks and it crashes in a month or so. This will crash and burn in Apr'13 after the ER. The expectations will be so high that there is no way NFLX can live up to it. I am a long term short on this and hope my strategy will pay off in the long run. GL.