I agree with inursha. Only bad news will bring this down (I own june puts).
I believe that nflx would face unpleasant surprises in non western countries.
As smart at nflx CEO might be, there is no way he or his team can predict the behavior of, analyze the value of and induce customers from various countries. nflx model is fine for USA.. may be suitable for the UK, canada or Australia. Perhaps even france and Italy but I am not so sure.. Maybe for austria and germany.. but I doubt that they can capture scandanavian countries, south american countries or the thirld world. The only smart thing I saw from reed hastings is that he is excluding china. Chinese market, he understood..
Often, the egos of successful CEOs can cloud their judgment. I am betting that this is that case. His quickster fiasco was only the start. Now he thinks he can produce content? Only 5% ato 8% of movies/shows are successful. Reed hastings thinks he can produce enough successful movies to keep it cost effective for nflx. I am betting that for every house of cards, he would have 5 flops. It is almost impossible to consistently make successful series. HBO has been in that business for 25 years? May be they were successful? But not everyone is a spielberg and lucas. Most become like carolco pictures (anyone know what they made? Very popular movies at one time!).. bankrupt! Sony lost a lot of money in columbia..
Therefore, the chances of nflx success with content are low!
The only positives for them are: 1. user base. 2. efficiency in management and delivery. 3. powerful people taking this stock up. Does anyone know if Eddie lampert is still in this stock? I read that he got out.. he is the smartest of all. Can someone tell me how much Ichan is holding.. when he got in, etc.?
The negatives are: a. unfamiliar territories - they might end up spending more than they should, to enter new world markets. b. crowded market place. c. amazon prime.. d. hulu. e. apple tv? f. vudu (maybe not?).