I believe that is a good prediction. Possible deadcat bounce to slow the bleeding and give weak shorts some pause. I am hoping your scenario plays put because i am looking at shorting any bounce. I am mostly vearish because of the terrible numbers thta keep coming out from retailers and dining. Darden was a disaster and now Yum showed weakness as well. Practically every retailer you can think of has reported bad and is giving very bad guidance.
My friends in real estate out here in California have told me the housing market is getting a little soft again. They had been on fire and were getting three offers over the asking price on nearly every listing they would get. Now they say that buyers are getting cautious and are starting to get a few deals falling apart. This may not be the case everywehre, but we seem to be a good benchmark. As California goes, so goes the rest of the US. The trend in credit cRd spending is going down as well. Tough landscape to navigate right now.
I dont like Helicopter Ben or his meddling in the economy, but I think Obama is making yet another mistake by putting her in as the new chairperson on this uncharted voyage. A lot uncertaintity = very few jobs and less discretionary spending.