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Netflix, Inc. Message Board

  • prudent.investor prudent.investor Nov 15, 2013 8:55 PM Flag

    Netflix slowed down to no growth

    Despite all the constant pumps and press releases, Netflix (symbol: NFLX) growth is slowing down tremendously to almost no growth at all. Just take a look at Netflix quarterly revenues and prudent investors should be able to understand Netflix is heading for the same fate as all the other matured companies like Microsoft, Dell, Intel, etc. Netflix had 8% revenue growth in the first quarter this year, but that decreased to 4% revenue growth in the second quarter, and it further dropped to pathetic 3% revenue growth last quarter. It is not much difference from no growth at all. Intel (symbol: INTC) revenue growth rate was actually better than Netflix last quarter, but unlike bubble stock NFLX with PE 290, Intel PE is only 13. Even if NFLX stock price were to crash 95%, NFLX PE would still be more expensive than INTC. NFLX is just a gigantic extremely expensive no growth bubble stock. In contrast, real hyper growth companies like Tesla (symbol: TSLA) grew revenues by a whopping 48% last quarter. TSLA is the real growth stock. The recent pull back in TSLA stock provides an excellent entry point for prudent investors to buy real growth stock TSLA cheap. Other real hyper growth stocks like INSY, VIPS, FB, DDD, BITA, LNKD, CSIQ, etc. are all much better investment alternatives than the no growth NFLX.

    Sentiment: Strong Sell

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    • Agree, NFLX is very expensive with a PE of 290.

    • Netlfix is just a no growth no profit big bubble stock that can crash 90% and more.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • It's really hard to find an undervalued stock now as everything is too expensive.
      Netflix is very overvalued IMO.

      • 1 Reply to yinvestor
      • There are still some stocks that are undervalued. For example, INSY delivered 55% revenue growth last quarter (contrast that to Netflix pathetic 3% growth), but INSY still has a very reasonable low PE. And even better, unlike NFLX insiders are dumping NFLX stocks heavily, INSY insiders bought INSY stocks heavily. No growth NFLX can crash 90% and its valuation is still higher than the real growth stock INSY.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • why cant we read this thread beyond Nov 15

    • It is about time for this no growth bubble stock company to crash. It is NFLX's turn to crash.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Let's be factual. Netflix is reporting steady 3%-5% revenue growth every quarter, which translates into healthy double digit annual growth. Whether they can keep it up remains to be scene. The biggest stock risk is a subscriber growth hiccup.

    • Tesla is the bubble here not Netflix. We have seen this play out before with FSLR whose stock crashed from 305 to 10. Environment conscious buyers swoop in to by the more expensive product and then the excitement fades, reality sets in when the rest of the population refuses to pay more. At a valuation 25 times that of Ford on a p/s basis Tesla could have a lot further to fall. We have the exact opposite with Netflix whose p/s is only twice as much as AMC or Comcast and with 35% yr/yr streaming growth while cable struggle. If Netflix generated the same excitement as Tesla and FSLR did the stock would be trading north of $2000 and with a product that is cheaper than cable they would deserve it.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 4 Replies to garolou22
      • I'm actually on the fence still about Tesla. Been doing some research on the side and batteries for them are cheaper than I thought. Their head of tech reported batteries as 'most often below 1/4th the price' which indicates somewhere between 250-300$/kwH. Other manufacturers report much larger figures, although that's likely not a permanent lead.

        More importantly if you wager a 50kwH battery for the Model E, that's now at 12,5k-15k and I'd wager it'll be about 20% less before that model is released. However, the higher demand for batteries at that point could push up their price. The question is really whether something like a 35k$ electric car can absorb a 10k$ cost for batteries, given they have some compensating advantages in a cheaper engine, no transmission, no exhaust, no alternator, it can be a smaller car overall with the same interior space, etc. etc. Another thing to consider is that you spend 10k$ on the battery but over a lifetime a substantial chunk is returned via gas v. electric refueling prices. If the car goes 200 miles on 50kwH that's 200 miles for 6$. A 30mpg vehicle (and the Tesla will be higher performance than some miserly 4 banger, so 30mpg is pushing it) is more like 20$ in gas. Therefore over 100,000 miles it's a savings of 7k$. Due to the simplicity of the electric drivetrain there is also implied savings in repair costs.

        Plus I think the driving experience of an electric vehicle designed by Tesla will beat most gas comparisons in that price class, mostly because of the beauty of the high torque EV nature.

        So I'm seeing the plausibility. The question for me really is battery production and future prices under extremely high demand for batteries.

      • If Intel comes out with a new chip, would you evaluate Intel stock price by just looking at the new chip sales growth or would you evaluate Intel stock based on all the sales??? Only looking at the streaming growth but not the entire company sales growth is the silly mistake NFLX investors are making. You only saw a tree but missed the entire forest. NFLX investors forgot Netflix is NOT a new company. This is a staled and matured company with a dying DVD mailing business. The new streaming business is only barely making up for the decline of the shrinking DVD mailing business. This company has no growth as a whole. AMC actually had 4% revenue growth last quarter, and that was better than Netflix 3% growth last quarter. Why should NFLX trade at a premium to AMC??? If you really think AMC is comparable to NFLX, then NFLX stock price should drop 50%. On the other hand, Tesla has 48% sales growth last quarter while Ford sales declined by 6% last quarter. Fast growing Tesla definitely deserves a lot higher stock premium than dying Ford. If Tesla can keep up the good work, eventually Tesla will own a bigger market share than Ford. Ford had never got 99 score from Consumer Reports during its entire history, Tesla did it with its first car model. Ford is yesterday's car maker. Tesla is the future of the U.S. auto industry.

        Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • LOL! $2k! Thanks for the laugh. The euphoria just gets more and more out of control with each passing week.

      • To maintain this growth NFLX must sign up next year 11mi people in USA. This year they had signed up around 5 million people. Next year will be the year with real competition out there and
        real pricing for content. Netflix barely making ends meet right now. It keeps spending money hoping to hold on to existing customers while people learning about alternatives.

    • Have you ever seen American Idol? Occasionally they have people on there that can't sing AT ALL... tone deaf and untalented. The scary part about it is they don't even know that they can't sing. So they get shot down hard, and are all like #$%$?! HOW CAN YOU SAY NO? I AM THE BEST SINGER EVER!!

      Well that's basically you.

 
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