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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

  • granicus007 granicus007 Jul 24, 2012 6:03 PM Flag

    TA cheap valuation

    any way one slices it, TA is so cheap at these prices. Book Value is understated already and yet it sells for less than 50% of that. TA does about $1.3BB in retail sales at nice margins, owns 8 greenfield parcels of zoned land on major highways, owns something on the order of 18 travel centers lien-free,owns their entire corporate offices outright and sitting on lots of cash and now working on LNG deal with Shell to offer nationwide LNG fueling capabilities. Think about this...try replacing TA's prime real estate today. It can't be done (at least not on any reasonable cost basis). TA and Pilot/Flying J have a nationwide duopoly..the 800 lb gorillas.
    Much has been made of TA's relationships with RMR & HPT, but if you step back and look at it, many companies have controlling shareholders such as Facebook,News Corp, etc. But in the final analysis, it is in all shareholder interests that TA does well; especially the controlling shareholders.
    At these prices, load the wagon and wait for the earnings to be released for 2Q.

    Happy Trails!

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    • I am long this stock, and am optimistic about our growth prospects, but I am sick to death of people on this board (and every other Yahoo stock discussion board) suggesting that anyone who posts negative opinions or information about their stock is part of an insidious conspiracy to drive the price down either because they are short or want to get into the stock at a cheaper price.

      This is a discussion board for chrissakes - not a support group. Art V makes some really good points, and is sharing information that is good for us as investors to know. Gotta take the good with the bad, people.

    • Ok so you want in, but lower? Fine, now that is out of the way. Now that is a contradiction in itself, based on your postings. And I never suggested you could move the market. I just suggested you would like to say how bad TA is and have it decline so you could buy. Which is what you admitted. I think you will not get in, if you are waiting for $4.30. And I think we should be trading over $10, and should beat on earnings handily.

    • I don't see a contradiction. I'd never be comfortable owning this company due to the HPT/RMR relationships. That doesn't mean that it's not tradeable.

      While it may be "a pretty good buy" at this price, it'd be a lot better buy ~15% lower (i.e. $4.30ish). You may do just fine buying at this price (and I hope you do), but I'm not comfortable doing it.

      Have I posted anything that is not true? TA pays nearly $200 million/yr to HPT in rent. You think HPT cares if TA stock is $5 or $7? RMR is paid ~$8 or $9 million/yr by TA....you think it cares about the stock price?

      Did you consider that TA sold those 10 million shares last year because that makes it more likely that it will be able to continue paying rent to HPT? If TA is so undervalued, why did it sell shares? Why didn't it just borrow money?

      If you think 1 person's ramblings on a yahoo! message board is enough to move the price of a stock, then you need to have your head examined. If the message boards are so influential, then why haven't all the pumper posts pushed the stock price up to $10?

    • You are so FOS. If the company is as bad as you post, why would you ever buy it? You make no sense. Either the company sucks as you purport OR it is a pretty good buy at this price. And a few cents lower will not make it a good deal, if it is not already! Or is your incessant negative posting just a ruse to attempt to buy lower? I say it will go up without you.....

    • You're confused dude.

      In 2008 or 2009, HPT allowed TA to defer $5 million of rent per month. In exchange, HPT was given a bunch of TA shares. That's where the $150 million deferred rent liability came from. If you don't believe me, I'm sure I can dig up the SEC filing.

      The deferrent rent was supposed to come due in 2011 or 2012. In early 2011, the shareholder lawsuit was settled...resulting in lower current rent and an extension of the due date on the deferred rent to 2020-something.

    • They rent agreement came from a shareholder lawsuit and it was beneficial to the holders to reduce the rent to what was more in line with the industry. You actually complaining of that??? They issued stock because they were expanding locations on incredible deals that were in the market. These deals will be incredibly beneficial to our bottom line now and in the future to our asset valuation as the real estate and economy market rebounds. The improvement are sold back to HPT for a small increase so we can continue utilizing them to purchase new locations as they have been.

    • Agree, been adding more under this major $4.80 support level.

      Good luck have agreat 2nd half of the summer!

      • 1 Reply to no_blinders
      • no matter who TA's landlord is, TA must pay the lease payments. The question then are the leases fair-market-value?
        I spoke with TA a while back and was told they had comps done by real estate consulting companies to ensure the leases were competitive within the market. And with the shareholder lawsuit from several years ago initiated by Mr. Kahn, everything was looked at during that legal process.
        I of course would like cheaper rents for TA so they make more $. But TA is running down the right road by purchasing multiple sites directly now. So TA will end up very soon with about 20 wholly owned travel center sites with ZERO rent. No mortgages, no liens, nothing. So I try to look where TA is going, not where TA is or has been.
        We have good input on this board and I learn a lot...thanks to all of you have have participated for so long.

    • Here's the issue as I see it: No matter how well TA performs as a company, any value created will never be realized by common shareholders. A dividend will never be paid, a buyout will never be allowed to occur. Value will be siphoned off by RMR & HPT indefinitely. All just my opinion of course and I wish that wasn't the case.

      TA does look like an extreme bargain. Unfortunately, until RMR & HPT decide otherwise, it will always look like an extreme bargain.

    • Can't wait till this earnings....we need new coverage of this stock. The stock trading on fears that the overall economy is heading to 2008 time again. Totally ridiculous.

 
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