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TravelCenters of America LLC Message Board

  • garyft54 garyft54 Aug 15, 2012 8:29 PM Flag

    Will this stock ever close over $5.75 again?

    It's pretty frustrating to endure the recent price action.

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    • Gee Art, you believe what you want. I could care less if you buy or not.

    • "...and the business is worth more."

      Thanks for that in-depth analysis. You've got me convinced. I just bought 100k shaes.

    • No Art, but that is a false choice. The earnings are increasing and will continue to increase and the business is worth more. So I answered the question, but it means nothing!

    • "And I would not see TA selling to anyone for book value."

      Ha, you're right...TA sold a significant portion of itself for less than 50% of book value in 2011.

      Book value is meaningless with TA.

      Let's say I own a retail shop and the shop's real estate. The shop earns $100 a year but it doesn't have to pay rent. I'm bored one day, so I decide to spin-off my retail shop from my real estate holdings. I decide to charge the shop $99 in annual rent and place all the store fixtures (valued at $20) on the store's balance sheet. I also give the store $10 in cash, so the store has a book value of $30.

      Here's the question...would you pay book value (i.e. $30) for my store that earns $1 per year?

    • Yahoo Finance showing book value at $11.65 now.

      I believe book value is quite a bit understated (as properties are on the books at purchase price, which in most cases well below FMV). And I would not see TA selling to anyone for book value.
      Once TA inks the natural gas deal with Shell, we will see interest spike. And if the share price doesnt get back at least towards book value, TA management should seriously consider taking TA private. Let's face it, an $8BB revenue company, selling for less than 50% of book value paying huge amounts to stay in compliance to remain a publicly owned company?

    • Exactly. It'd be interesting to see what PE would pay for TA.

    • yes, it certainly makes sense. And the high cost of Sarbanes-Oxley I have read is in the millions per year so there would be lots of cost savings alone in NOT being a publicly owned company.
      And the longer the stock goes unrewarded for TA's positive results it seems the more likelihood of a "take out" happening? If The Street doesnt soon recongize the value here, how cheap it is in contrast to it's assets, then take it out.

    • I'm starting to think it's going to go back below $5 at some point between now and then, and if that's the case, I'm buying like crazy around $4.95. But you'd better believe I'm selling into the earnings news.

      It's a crying shame really, but barring some analyst coverage and/or volume, that's the best way I see to play this stock.

      • 1 Reply to pp_burns
      • Well, just dont get caught with your pants around your ankles. If this private equity buyout rumor has any legs and is real the stock will fly upwards in a hurry. This is the first time that I've had any analyst confirm that they heard the rumor.

        The biggest hurdle would be HPT. I can definitely see where TA would want to do this though. If there are really hundreds (or at least 100 good ones) that are potential properties out there like Obrien says. Private equity to snap up TA and have a field day in buying up the good ones.

    • It's a joke. Absolutely ridiculous. I did speak with an analyst this week that confirmed that he had heard the private equity rumor - but obviously didn't know id there is any validity to it or not.

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