Wed, Jul 23, 2014, 10:23 AM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 5 hrs 37 mins

Recent

% | $
Click the to save as a favorite.

Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • ccastaff ccastaff Mar 19, 2002 9:12 PM Flag

    Technical Talk

    Hello all, Well folks, the downward price action has violated all of the support levels that the General and I were discussing a few weeks ago. UTL 1 and UTL 5 have been convincingly demolished as well as the 200 day moving average and one that we hadn't discussed which is the rather substantial support which should have been at the $15.00 price level which was also violated today.

    What do you think General? Where is the support on your charts?

    Frankly, I don't see much technical support at all. There are miniscule amounts at $14.50, $13.50 and a bit more at around $9.50 and we hit bedrock at $6.00.

    Once again my disclaimer... I believe in this company very strongly, but we are in a period where the technical factors are very negative. The prospects for interest rates is very gloomy and this stock is frankly an interest rate play at this time, but it's on the wrong side of the curve now. Rates could shoot up sharply now that Mr. Greenspan has waved the green flag.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • /...ah, would that be Gen. Curtis LeMay?

    • That's right. Curtis LeMay. One of my all-time favorites.

    • The General will take a stab at it, ugadawg_98. The person that comes to mind was George C. Wallace's running mate on the American Independent Party's ticket in the 1968 Presidential campaign.

      Could it have been retired (1965) Air Force Chief of Staff, Gen. Curtis Emerson LeMay (1906-1990)?

      And, BTW, s'more "Strangelove" trivia:

      Stanley Kubrick (who co-erote the screenplay as well as directed) chose names for some of the characters that had sexual connotations such as Buck Turgidson, President Merkin Muffley, Group Captain Lionel Mandrake.

      If you screen the video (which the General highly recommends doing), read Major King Kong's (Slim Pickens') lips when he reads off the checklist of the contents of the survival kits he's had distributed to the crew aboard their B-52 as they head for their assigned target(s) to (pre-emptively) "nuke the Russkies."

      The actual shooting script has him, at one point saying, "Shoot, a feller could have a real good time in Dallas with this."

      As it happened, Kubrick shot the film in early 1963 and we know what happened in November of that year. So, in postproduction, the producers had Pickens voice-over "Vegas" for "Dallas."

    • rainguage's "pooh-poohing" attitude towards "technical-schmechnical" (#19172) notwithstanding, ccastaff, when the General saw UTL5 and UTL1 fail on unremarkable volume, he no longer held much in the way of "supportive" expectations for the 200-DMA. Your T/A 'reading' turned out to be right and the General's was wrong.

      What now? For an answer to that question, the General defers to his T/A, the Oracle at Delphi, who opines that CXW will become "oversold" at 13.5 to 13.

      The Oracle doesn't see much in the way of technical support until the 12.0 +/- 0.5 level. If it breaks below that, it does not bode well for "longs".

      • 6 Replies to GenJackripper
      • ccastaff, the General is unprepared to say at this time.

        While a case can be made in support of sam_0534's 'observation' (in #s 19255 & 19256) -- which the General is about to do, he's not convinced that the "buyers" have begun to exhaust the "sellers . . . yet."

        In message #19180 (to which this message replies), the General posted the opinion of his T/A. the Oracle at Delphi, on the subject of technical support.

        The Oracle said that CXW would be getting into "oversold" territory in the range of 13.5 to 13.0 and there wasn't much in the way of technical support until the 12.0 +/- 0.5 range.

        For statistical precedence, sam_0534 has referred us to last year's charts covering the summer of '01, to wit:

        << This high volume may be the bottom of the move as CXW does have chart support back at the levels last June, August and September. >> (As the Historical Pricing stats will bear out, sam could've thrown in July as well.) The Table below inducates the four 'nadir' dates in that period and at what respective intra-day low price support came in.

        6/18/01: 11.66
        7/31/01: 12.40
        8/20/01: 12.91
        9/21/01: 12.60

        The average of those nadir points is 12.3925. The General suspects that these were the basis for the Oracle's technical support range of 12.0 +/- 0.5.

        In 5 of the last 8 trading sessions (beginning with 3/26/02), with the exception of 4/01/02, whose i-d l was 12.99, when CXW'a i-d l went < 13.00 (the lower limit of the Oracle's "oversold" range), its trading volume that day was at least some multiple of its then ADV, as shown in the Table below:

        xDATE x I-D L x VOLUME x % ADV

        3/26: 12.80 x 316,800 x 356%
        3/27: 12.15 x 265,300 x 295%
        3/28: 12.26 x 194,400 x 214%
        4/04: 12.86 x 323,900 x 344%
        4/05: 12.97 x 392,000 x 413%

        The average of the above 'nadirs' is 12.608 or 1.74% above last summer's mean nadir. Recent volume-stimuli pricing could be the spring of '02's support level or we might have to dip slightly further to last summer's range for possible capitulation.

        To echo sam_0534, << More will be revealed . . .>>

        In addition to << Friday's high UP volume >>, one mught attempt to draw encouragement from the fact that Friday's i-d l (12.97) was not only higher than Thursday's (12.86), but Friday drew more volume than Thursday, indicating that, perhaps, the market is increasingly being attracted to CXW at a higher price. This assumption remains to be proven out by time-testing.

        While the total volume generated by the aforementioned 5 "multiple-ADV" days (1,492,400 shares traded) amounts to only about 6% of CXW's float, the General's caution is essentially based on the fact that, per IBD, CXW is still hanging on to an "E" A/D rating (Strong Distribution).

        The sellers haven't indicated that they're through with CXW, . . . . yet.

      • Sorry about the duplication, It didn't seem to accept the post at first so I kept repeating and then they were all there :-S the most recent one has a few refinements read it and ignore the rest.

      • Thank you General, you are truly a gentleman soldier. You have no doubt read the article of the UCMJ that I quoted recently.

        Going back a few posts, I did want to that I have taken a few seminars from Robert Prechter on Elliot Wave Theory analysis but nevertheless, it is so much easier to count the waves after they have occurred. Even Mr. Prechter could agree to that having made a few blunders along the way himself. I don't know about any other EWT practitioners.

        It is my belief that the highs of $19.25 have completed wave 1 of a five wave series. We are currently in a wave 2 which by definition is a down wave. Wave 2's can be viewed as part of the basebuilding phase which is necessary after the devistating declines of the past few years. Wave 1 went from the lows of $1.85 (reverse split adjusted) to $19.25 for a net advance of $17.375. Elliot Wave Theory relies heavily on analysis of the Fibonacci ratios, you will find that historically a wave 2 is typically very severe, frequently retracing the wave 1 move by 50% or 61.8%. A 50% retracement would put us at $10.56 or a 61.8% retracement would take us to $8.51. Since there are no discernable support levels near these prices so there is no confirmation of these as target prices, but don't be too surprised if they don't show us a landing spot.

        If this sounds like mumbo-jumbo check out this link: http://pgmba.com/equity/technical.html scroll down and click on "Elliot Wave Theory" in the left frame.

        Your first choice of $13.50 area as an oversold point might be about a buck high, based on the support shown at the $12.something area on 7/31 and 9/21 of 2001. This area is strengthened not only by those lows but also by another Fibonacci number of 38.2%. A 38.2% retracement from $19.25 would put us at $12.61. When these Fibonacci numbers coincide with other forms of support they often create lows, or at very least, congestion. This will get us closer to your $12.0 +/- 0.5 level.

        Speaking of congestion, we are showing some support in this $15.00 area based on the fact that $15. was a heavy resistance point on the way up, and as you know resistance points become support on the way down. A lot of shares were accumulated in this price range so it may take a little while before we drop convincingly below this zone.

        I'm not concerned about those who do not have regard for Technical Analysis, but perhaps if they watch carefully, we will have a few more "Believers" as this scenario unfolds.

      • Thank you General, you are truly a gentleman soldier. You have no doubt read the article of the UCMJ that I quoted recently.

        Going back a few posts, I did want to say that I have taken a few seminars from Robert Prechter on Elliot Wave analysis but nevertheless, it is so much easier to count the waves after they have occurred. Even Mr. Prechter could agree to that having made a few blunders along the way himself.

        It is my belief that the highs of $19.25 have completed wave 1 of a five wave series. We are currently in a wave 2 which by definition is a down wave. Wave 2's can be viewed as part of the basebuilding phase which is necessary after the devistating declines of the past few years. Wave 1 went from the lows of $1.85 (reverse split adjusted) to $19.25 for a net advance of $17.375. Elliot Wave Theory relies heavily on analysis of the Fibonacci ratios, you will find that historically a wave 2 is typically very severe, frequently retracing the wave 1 move by 50% or 61.8%. A 50% retracement would put us at $10.56 or a 61.8% retracement would take us to $8.51. Since there are no discernable support levels near these prices so there is no confirmation of these as target prices, but don't be too surprised if they don't show us a landing spot.

        If this sounds like mumbo-jumbo check out this link: http://pgmba.com/equity/technical.html scroll down and click on "Elliot Wave Theory" in the left frame.

        Your choice of $13.50 area as an oversold point might be about a buck high, based on the support shown at the $12.something area on 7/31 and 9/21 of 2001. This area is strengthened not only by those lows but also by another Fibonacci number of 38.2%. A 38.2% retracement from $19.25 would put us at $12.61. When these Fibonacci numbers coincide with other forms of support they often cause, at very least, congestion. This will get us closer to your $12.0 +/- 0.5 level.

        Speaking of congestion, we are showing some support in this $15.00 area based on the fact that $15. was a heavy resistance point on the way up, and as you know resistance points become support on the way down. A lot of shares were accumulated in this price range so it may take a little while before we drop convincingly below this zone.

        I'm not concerned about those who do not have regard for Technical Analysis, but perhaps if they watch carefully, we will have a few more "Believers" before this scenario unfolds.

      • Thank you General, you are truely a gentleman soldier. You have no doubt read the article of the UCMJ that I quoted recently.

        Going back a few posts, I did want to say that I have taken a few seminars from Robert Prechter on Elliot Wave analysis but nevertheless, it is so much easier to count the waves after they have occurred. Even Mr. Prechter could agree to that having made a few blunders along the way himself.

        It is my belief that the highs of $19.25 have completed wave 1 of a five wave series. We are currently in a wave 2 which by definition is a down wave. Wave 2's can be viewed as part of the basebuilding phase which is necessary after the devistating declines of the past few years. Wave 1 went from the lows of $1.85 (reverse split adjusted) to $19.25 for a net advance of $17.375. Elliot Wave Theory relies heavily on analysis of the Fibonacci ratios, you will find that historically a wave 2 is typically very severe, frequently retracing the wave 1 move by 50% or 61.8%. A 50% retracement would put us at $10.56 or a 61.8% retracement would take us to $8.51. Since there are no discernable support levels near these prices so there is no confirmation of these as target prices, but don't be too surprised if they don't show us a landing spot.

        If this sounds like mumbo-jumbo check out this link: http://pgmba.com/equity/technical.html scroll down and click on "Elliot Wave Theory" in the left frame.

        Your choice of $13.50 area as an oversold point might be about a buck high, based on the support shown at the $12.something area on 7/31 and 9/21 of 2001. This area is strengthened not only by those lows but also by another Fibonacci number of 38.2%. A 38.2% retracement from $19.25 would put us at $12.61. When these Fibonacci numbers coincide with other forms of support they often cause, at very least, congestion.

        Speaking of congestion, we are showing some support in this $15.00 area based on the fact that $15. was a heavy resistance point on the way up, and as you know resistance points become support on the way down. A lot of shares were accumulated in this price range so it may take a little while before we drop convincingly below this zone.

        I'm not concerned about those who do not have regard for Technical Analysis, but perhaps if they watch carefully, we will have a few more "Believers" before this scenario unfolds.

      • Thank you General, you are truely a gentleman soldier. You have no doubt read the article of the UCMJ that I quoted recently.

        Going back a few posts, I did want to say that I have taken a few seminars from Robert Prechter on Elliot Wave analysis but nevertheless, it is so much easier to count the waves after they have occurred. Even Mr. Prechter could agree to that having made a few blunders along the way himself.

        It is my belief that the highs of $19.25 have completed wave 1 of a five wave series. We are currently in a wave 2 which by definition is a down wave. Wave 2's can be viewed as part of the basebuilding phase which is necessary after the devistating declines of the past few years. Wave 1 went from the lows of $1.85 (reverse split adjusted) to $19.25 for a net advance of $17.375. Elliot Wave Theory relies heavily on analysis of the Fibonacci ratios, you will find that historically a wave 2 is typically very severe, frequently retracing the wave 1 move by 50% or 61.8%. A 50% retracement would put us at $10.56 or a 61.8% retracement would take us to $8.51. Since there are no discernable support levels near these prices so there is no confirmation of these as target prices, but don't be too surprised if they don't show us a landing spot.

        If this sounds like mumbo-jumbo check out this link: http://pgmba.com/equity/technical.html scroll down and click on "Elliot Wave Theory" in the left frame.

        Your choice of $13.50 area as an oversold point might be about a buck high, based on the support shown at the $12.something area on 7/31 and 9/21 of 2001. This area is strengthened not only by those lows but also by another Fibonacci number of 38.2%. A 38.2% retracement from $19.25 would put us at $12.61. When these Fibonacci numbers coincide with other forms of support they often cause, at very least, congestion.

        Speaking of congestion, we are showing some support in this $15.00 area based on the fact that $15. was a heavy resistance point on the way up, and as you know resistance points become support on the way down. A lot of shares were accumulated in this price range so it may take a little while before we drop convincingly below this zone.

        I'm not concerned about those who do not have regard for Technical Analysis, but perhaps if they watch carefully, we will have a few more "Believers" before this scenario unfolds.

    • Technical, schmechial. Think long term. Look back at where we were a year ago...even two years ago. We are going to make it...kicking and screaming all the way (just like life). Take two aspirin and don't look at your portfolio for one month.

 
CXW
33.16+0.07(+0.21%)10:23 AMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.