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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • dubed77 dubed77 Jul 29, 2002 1:46 PM Flag

    Wave count

    Somebody help me here. Im sure that the wave count principle is sound in theory but I dont understand how it takes into consideration individual stock performance. Forgive me if Im ignorant on this but it appears to be more suited to over all market or industry trend rather than the application to individual stock perfomance. CCASTAFF I have probably missed many of your posts but would appreciate any insight on this subject. Im sure there still are market struggles ahead but I believe CCA is poised to be able to swim up stream successfully and spawn by spring or early summer. There are beds available, a need for them thats growing daily and historically regardless of the financial woes the states and the fed find the money somewhere because the public wont except anything less.

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    • AW0099: I take notice of your strong buy position. Can I {I dont like the word assume} can I ask if you atleast somewhat agree that CCAs present position could leave them the ability to swim up stream in this market? Im refering to need for beds, availability of existing beds and the strong possibility of a nudge from the unfolding political climate. Hope I this makes sense to you. I too am a faithful CCAer and Im trying to keep the faith without bareing my behind again. Input would be greatly appreciated.

    • CCAStaff: Point well taken. Especially the risk for return. Also the point of riding forward makes sense. If I am right it wont hurt to wait for the turn.

    • PRINCESS: I routinely monitor this board and enjoy very much its good natured jousts (a real breath of fresh air from some of the others that I follow); I infrequently post, but today's discussion on Elliot Wave Theory begs the question that you've highlighted -- to what extent is any Elliot Wave extrapolation useful for a sotck, like CXW, that has so thorughly reorganized itself (out of the old PZN, and then the still older CCA) as to truthfully have cecome a different company. An example of this issue is the validity of the pre-DCX trading history of the Chrysler Corporation (old C).

    • Some time back you said that the fundamentals of the stock were already factored into wave theory. Or maybe you didn't and I misunderstood you. Either way, could you explain to me how wave theory accounts for fundamentals; i.e., earnings, market potential, cost of capital, etc.?

      Also, CCA stock never took off UNTIL it was listed on the NYSE in late 1994. At one point it traded for $90, but I can't remember if that was before or after the splits. So if you want to use wave theory to chart CCA's upward climb in the mid-1990's, you definitely have something to work with.

      I realize I'm lumping old CCA/newPZN/newCCA into one stock but to me it's the same company.

    • Please do not depend on me to keep you grounded. The last time you played out your wave game the stock rose to 16+ so continue to play. I still think there is a real good possibility you have another game at work here.
      Thanks

    • The only "wave" relative to this stock is the tsunami that occurred as a result of the actions of the chief crook Doc Crants and his cohorts.

      Applying anything logical based upon history to this stock is for all intents and purposes a waste of your time!!!

      Remember, the current $12.40 "value" is actually $1.24 [due to the 1:10 reverse split] for a stock that several years ago was in the mid 40's [which translates to an original mid 400's]. It has a looooooong way to go to recover.

    • I see what you mean, but there is a difference. What I am referring to is that the "C" wave always goes to a lower low than the "A" wave. It's kind of unique since I don't have data on the stock before it was on the Big Board. We mostly only have the downward part of the picture.

      My feeling is that it is unwise to go long while the stock is still searching for a bottom. Even if you are correct, the risk/reward is not worth gambling on. Wait �till we re-establish an up trend. You might miss a few bucks at the turn, but if you are correct, a few bucks at the bottom won�t matter. Virtually all analysts agree... don't try to pick a bottom. Let the bottom form and then hop on after you can prove an established up trend.

      As much as anyone, I wish my forecast were not downward, because I am a loyal employee, but I'm just calling it as I see it.

    • CCAStaff; I looked at the info you gave me on E wave theory. Even the example they give of the [EM]stock Stopped the C wave decline 50% ahead of their 1993 lows. Hope Im not being redundant or to uninformed here but wouldnt that mean for the long term that somewhere in this decline, if it is the C, a buying opportunity exists. I too believe there is more than just air in CCAs bubble. Im surely not trying to rebut your ideas and research, not smart enough to do that. I just see other forces at work here. One that I believe has more impact than we recognize is political climate. There is alot going on right now and most of it concerns reform,investment and economy. This Industry is affected by all that to a greater degree than some. I guess Im looking for some positive results from those pressures and CCAs new structure. This is a learning process for me so your reply will be greatly appreciated.

    • I think the stock will remain in a trading channel for a long time. Damage like this doesn't go away easily. I see the stock trading to $20 as easily as $6(area of support I see), so $12 makes it neutral. But unlike many bubble stocks CXW does have something underneath it all other than air.
      For long term buyers situations like this are grand. The stock will remain undervalued for an extented time due to over-head stock. Patience rewards those investors buying when stocks like this are down I feel.

    • The Elliot Wave Principle works with individual stocks as well as averages. The most striking example is the chart for Apple Computer in the eighties. It is letter perfect. It is often used in seminars and E.W. Training because you couldn't draw it better if you tried. Thus, a complete novice could have read it. Some stocks are much harder to read, except in retrospect. CXW is an example of one that is easier to read.

      Here is a link to an E.W. primer with resources for deeper study.
      http://www.stockcharts.com/education/What/MarketAnalysis/elliotwavetheory.html

      Forgive my brevity this evening, but I have a big "HoneyDo" list. :-)

 
CXW
35.71+0.05(+0.14%)Aug 22 4:02 PMEDT

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