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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • GenJackripper GenJackripper Jun 15, 2003 2:32 PM Flag

    Statistical Trivia.

    In just the past 11 weeks (4/28/03 to 6/13/03), CXW's closing price has risen +34.17% ($17.44 --> $23.40).

    This performance probably doesn't come as anything surprising to CXW watchers.

    While its price rose a +34.17% over said 11 weeks, what percentage increase in its 3-month ADV do you think occurred over that same 11-week time span?

    +100%?, +150%?, +200%?, +250%?, +300%?, +350%?, +400%?

    Its ADV went from 56,545 shares to the currently showing 201,136 shares, an increase of +255.71%.

    On a 1:10 reverse-split adjusted basis, 201,136 shares per day today = 2,011,360 shares per day pre-r-s.

    Pre its r-s, the General's end-of-the-trading-week stats indicates that CXW's highest 3-month ADV was 830,227 shares per day for the week ending 1/26/01, when its closing price was $1.1875 (r-s adjusted = $11.875).

    Its ADV of 830,227 shares then constituted 0.35% of its then 235,379,198 shares outstanding.

    By contrast, CXW's current ADV of 201,136 shares constitutes 0.72% of its 28,114,109 shares outstanding?

    Had enough?

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    • To give the readers of this mb some perspective and historical basis of comparison with what an ADV:S/O factor has risen to for CCA/PZN/CXW, the General looked at its big max-term chart here on Y!-F and noticed the periods of high volumes.

      The earliest one showing is in mid-1999 (when the company was PZN and headin' south).

      The General then went back to his archived stats and found that for the week ending 7/30/99, PZN's 3-months ADV peaked out at 1,061,898 shares per day and, from IR (back when there was an IR and he regularly received the end-of-the-month S/Os -- he was known as The General "The Pest," then), the S/O a/o 7/31/99 was 118,168,443.

      ADV:S/O = 1,061,898 � 118,168,443 = 0.899

      The General hasn't looked at what the subsequent historical high-volume periods calc to insofar as the ADV:S/O factor is concerned.

      To equate (a rising) CXW's ADV:S/O factor, currently, to a mid-1999 (descending) PZN's, CXW's 3-month ADV would have to rise to 252,642 shares per day.

    • Okay, I like the # crunching and all, but exactly what does it mean?

      Obviously the +34.17% price increase is good (even I can understand that!), I'm not really clear on the comps you've made though.

      Does the 2x higher current ADV indicate that we're heading even higher? Or is it just an indication of more interest, which could then lead to a higher price?

      And can the 2 periods, pre r-s and currently, actually be compared as apples to apples?

      • 1 Reply to guywithbaldspot
      • g_w_b_s, the reader can make whatever interpretations they care to (or don't care to) from the stats.

        As for the General, to him it confirms the increased interest in CXW which, since that interest is associated with a rise in price, bodes bullishly for CXW's future, in the General's opinion. So the General's answers to the two questions you've posed are: "Yes" and "Yes."

        The General does regard the pre-r-s and post-r-s stats as being comparable, strictly on a mathematical basis.

        It stands to reason that there are a significantly greater number of institutional investors who're looking at CXW priced in the teens and twenties than there would've been in its pre-r-s $1 (or less) price. The doubling of the ADV:S/O factor (over the time span of almost 2 1/2 years), in the General's opinion, is an indicator of this.

        Keep in mind that the doubling of this ADV:S/O factor has only recently occurred in a very short period. The General had previously cited the % ADV growth over the past 11 weeks but it moved to its RECENT "doubling" (compared to its "doubling" over 2+ years ago's stats) only within the last 6+ weeks�

        � Here are CXW's 3-month ADV's for the past 11 trading week endings. You can see that about half (~100,000 shares) of its most recent ADV, for the week ending 6/13/03, occurred sometime between 6 and 7 week-endings ago. The General is also indicating the end-of-the-week's closing price (PRICE).

        T-W-E 3-M ADV x PRICE

        6/13: 201,136 $23.40
        6/06: 193,909 $25.00
        5/30: 180,000 $23.64
        5/23: 169,681 $22.46
        5/16: 156,636 $21.82
        5/09: 148,332 $21.75
        5/02: 128,363 $20.98
        4/25: x76,772 $20.55
        4/17: x69,000 $21.05�
        4/11: x64,363 $19.30
        4/04: x62,636 $18.80
        3/28: x56,545 $17.44

        � 4/18/03 was Good Friday, a market holiday.

        CXW began its recent rather consistent price climb since the week-ending 2/14/03 (closing price: $16.85), the week in which, on 2/12/03, it reported 4Q02 & FY02 earnings.

        HOWEVER, although its price began its ascent then, there wasn't an accompanying increase in ADV (increased "interest" shown) until AFTER the week ending 3/28/03, which was about midway between when 4Q02/FY02 earnings were reported (2/12/03) and 1Q03's earnings were reported (5/08/03).

        It may be that CXW, in its progressive advancement, may now be taking a bit of a breather.

        Time to sell covered calls?

    • > had enough?

      General, I ask the purely rhetorical question:

      "Can one ever too many hard numbers, provided they are relevant, well-considered and accurately calculated quantitative data based on solid research, and rendered with the seasoned experience of a veteran Happy Brigadier?"

      Take My Advice, Chief: Keep Erudition Rolling!

 
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