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  • guywithbaldspot guywithbaldspot Jun 17, 2003 4:15 AM Flag

    Statistical Trivia.

    Okay, I like the # crunching and all, but exactly what does it mean?

    Obviously the +34.17% price increase is good (even I can understand that!), I'm not really clear on the comps you've made though.

    Does the 2x higher current ADV indicate that we're heading even higher? Or is it just an indication of more interest, which could then lead to a higher price?

    And can the 2 periods, pre r-s and currently, actually be compared as apples to apples?

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    • g_w_b_s, the reader can make whatever interpretations they care to (or don't care to) from the stats.

      As for the General, to him it confirms the increased interest in CXW which, since that interest is associated with a rise in price, bodes bullishly for CXW's future, in the General's opinion. So the General's answers to the two questions you've posed are: "Yes" and "Yes."

      The General does regard the pre-r-s and post-r-s stats as being comparable, strictly on a mathematical basis.

      It stands to reason that there are a significantly greater number of institutional investors who're looking at CXW priced in the teens and twenties than there would've been in its pre-r-s $1 (or less) price. The doubling of the ADV:S/O factor (over the time span of almost 2 1/2 years), in the General's opinion, is an indicator of this.

      Keep in mind that the doubling of this ADV:S/O factor has only recently occurred in a very short period. The General had previously cited the % ADV growth over the past 11 weeks but it moved to its RECENT "doubling" (compared to its "doubling" over 2+ years ago's stats) only within the last 6+ weeks�

      � Here are CXW's 3-month ADV's for the past 11 trading week endings. You can see that about half (~100,000 shares) of its most recent ADV, for the week ending 6/13/03, occurred sometime between 6 and 7 week-endings ago. The General is also indicating the end-of-the-week's closing price (PRICE).

      T-W-E 3-M ADV x PRICE

      6/13: 201,136 $23.40
      6/06: 193,909 $25.00
      5/30: 180,000 $23.64
      5/23: 169,681 $22.46
      5/16: 156,636 $21.82
      5/09: 148,332 $21.75
      5/02: 128,363 $20.98
      4/25: x76,772 $20.55
      4/17: x69,000 $21.05�
      4/11: x64,363 $19.30
      4/04: x62,636 $18.80
      3/28: x56,545 $17.44

      � 4/18/03 was Good Friday, a market holiday.

      CXW began its recent rather consistent price climb since the week-ending 2/14/03 (closing price: $16.85), the week in which, on 2/12/03, it reported 4Q02 & FY02 earnings.

      HOWEVER, although its price began its ascent then, there wasn't an accompanying increase in ADV (increased "interest" shown) until AFTER the week ending 3/28/03, which was about midway between when 4Q02/FY02 earnings were reported (2/12/03) and 1Q03's earnings were reported (5/08/03).

      It may be that CXW, in its progressive advancement, may now be taking a bit of a breather.

      Time to sell covered calls?

39.42-0.21(-0.53%)Apr 24 4:01 PMEDT