aw0099, if TC2, the steeper of the trading channels defined and described in message #21101, should remain unviolated and intact for the next 8 months (insofar as its floor is concerned), then CXW's price on 12/31/04 should range somewhere between its floor's value of $41.62 and its soffit's value of $49.89. TC2's mean longitudinal axis would be at a value of $45.76.
Despite the ups and downs of the broader market indexes, particularly the more recent 'downs', CXW continues on it appreciating way within the confines of its trading channel, TC2, for almost 8 months now.
Should it continue to do so for the next 4 months, here (to the nearest mil) are what the values of its floor (F), mean longitudinal axis (A), and soffit (S) will be a/o the 1st of each month shown.
S: $39.621 A: $35.489 F: $31.356
S: $40.912 A: $36.779 F: $32.647
S: $42.203 A: $38.070 F: $33.937
S: $43.435 A: $39.302 F: $35.169
S: $44.784 A: $40.651 F: $36.519
As can be seen from the above, it is conceivable that CXW could enter the $40s area before this month is out, but the odds favor that being more likely by sometime in August, when "A" will have transited $40.00 on August 17th.
TC2's climb out rate of 1/17th of a point per weekday, bodes well for its long-term longevity.
Although "slow (board &) stock" was a convenient excuse for tester909 to show & tell, as Aesop has taught us, "slow and steady wins the race."
The General apologizes if his calcs & figures takes the bloom off the rose for some readers.
You've been so 'silent' for so long, the General thought that the company had reassigned you to IR. :-)
Given time, the General will try to see what CXW's chart is projecting, assuming, of course, that it maintains its climb out rate.
Apart from its own merits, CXW has been enjoying the benefits which the market has accorded IBD's 51-company constituencey of its Commercial Services-Security/Safety industry group. The group currently ranks #2 out of IBD's 197 industry groupings and has been ranking in the top quintile (A- to A+ rankings) of Industry Group Relative Strengths (GRS) for almost a half-year.
The General has no idea how much longer the group will enjoy such favored market status and when the market starts looking with disfavor on a group, it tends to effect all within the group (the old rising or lowering "tide" analogy).
This coming Monday's IBD reports that, yesterday (Friday) the group ranked #2.
A week ago, it ranked #4
3 months ago, it was #9
6 months ago, it was #42
It's like a student who comes home with a report card of straight "A"s, there's really only one direction that their grades can go to from there. :-(