I haven't seen you post for awhile. Would welcome seeing your opinion on the reasons for the recent slide in this, my favorite stock, since it hit a high of $41 little while back. Do you think we're headed back that way? Why do you think this stock doesen't sell for a higher PE multiple? Thanks and anyone else with thoughts on this appreciated.
(C)hristmas (w)ith (h)appy brigadiers?
Best wishes for a hale and hearty Christmas season!!
( my present to you...a crazy 'finish the caption' contest ! )
runaway revolutionary rebel?
It appears to the General that CXW may be approaching a breakout to new heights from its 22-week long c-w-h consolidation. The evidence?
Well, for one, CXW reached an i-d h of $40.00 on 12/01/04 and began forming a descending "handle" which has been accompanied by a requisite decline in ADV. Over the succeeding week, following its establishment of the i-d h on 12/01/04, CXW declined -6.65% to an i-d l of $37.34 on 12/08/04 and, for the succeeding 8 sessions following 12/01/04, its 8-day ADV was 111,400 shares traded.
This compares with the 10-day ADV prior to, but including 12/01/04, of 226,990 shares traded, indicating that the "handle's" ADV was 49.08% of that prior to the handle's beginning its formation. The 3-months ADV prior to the handle's beginning to form was on the order of ~175,000.
Volume had picked up in today's (Tuesday's) session to 190,300 shares, the highest it's been in almost 3 weeks, so CXW may be building up a head of steam that could take it through its c-w-h pivot point of $40.10. It's got to do so with conviction (High volume) or the breakout will be suspect.
If CRN can be hitting new 52-week highs in the past week, it looks like it might be CXW's turn to do the same.
And let's be honest (and objective) about it, folks, who better deserves it? :-)
w-w-c, the General hadn't expected you to be sober enough to post this soon after Le Socks Rouge ended an 86 year-old "Curse of the Bambino."
Your posting reminded the General of an old 'Talmudic' conundrum.
Q: If you have two chickens, one healthy and one sick, which one do you slaughter for food?
A: The healthy one. Since it is not in accordance with the Jewish dietary laws to slaughter an animal that is other than healthy, the healthy chicken is sacrificed to make some soup which is given to the sick chicken to make it healthy. Once that is achieved, the formerly 'sick' chicken is slaughtered for consumption.
Isn't it funny how the Arabs always depend on and receive aid from the French. Even in the case of medical care.
Of course, the only kind of soup Arafat will get in France will be "chicken".
All of which brings us back to the General's analysis since Chicken soup is a well known Jewish remedy.
The General notes that Yasser's not feeling to chipper after ingesting some soup last night.
< ... was eating soup >< when he became violently ill, a bodyguard told The Associated Press. >
What'd Arafat expect when he offered Grossingers soup chef more money. Didn't he know that the guy graduated from a Le Cordon Bleu school run by the Mossad.
If he'd a had some Jewish Israeli doctors caring for him, he'd a had a chance.
If something is still unclear, such as where the consensus estimated EPS, CAGRs, etc. can be found, all you (or anyone else) need to do is ask.
Some of the historical data is from the General's record keeping but much of it is archived here on the Y!-F quote site.
The reason that you haven't seen the General posting here for awhile, lbi5000, is that:
a) he's got nothing on-topic to add to the discussion, and
b) he's been at war.
The General's responses to your questions:
He doesn't know the "reasons" for CXW's descent from its 7/14/04's i-d & 52-week high of $41.15 other than it seems to be forming a cup-with-handle (c-w-h) consolidation pattern not unlike the one CRN began forming @ about the same time.
Since CXW hasn't been taking Cialis, you can't expect for it to stay up forever (MK is the singular exception to that rule).
If you're comparing CXW's performance to date with the broader averages and indexes, it doesn't look that good, but you may not be aware of some things that do look favorable by comparison. The General will enumerate them in his next posting, since he's got to attend to some other matters right now.
lbi5000, the General will attempt to have you answer a couple of the questions you've asked by posting some "snapshots" of data reported by IBD.
Given the line-length limitations of a message's width, he'll have to post the info contained in these snapshots, piecemeal.
CXW peaked out @ its i-d (and current 52-week) high of $41.15 on Wednesday, July 14th.
It then reached its recent i-d l nadir of $32.538, 8+ weeks later on Friday, September 10th.
To those snapshots, the General will add the data from last Friday, October 22, and yesterday, Monday, October 25th.
The number that appears at the extreme right end of the line is the numerical ranking for the Group Price Strength of the Commercial Services-Security/Safety (CS-S/S) industry group to which IBD has assigned CXW. There are presently 54 companies in said industry group and IBD has a total of 197 such industry groupings. That number should generally correlate with the first of the lettered rankings appearing in IBD's reporting of rating/ranking data for a given day/date.
The last letter in the line of data refers to CXW's Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) rating. IBD's A/D ratings go from "A" (Strong Accumulation) to "C" (Neutral) to "E" (Strong Distribution).
In presenting these data snapshots, the General will employ a mid-level dot (�) where necessary, inorder to maintain columnar alignment, given that some lettered rankings may have a '+' or a '-' appended to them while others do not.
Here are portions of the the 5 snapshots:
W, 07/14: 80/20/89/A+/B�/B� 06
F, 09/10: 37/15/59/A�/B�/E� 32
F, 10/22: 49/15/58/B�/B�/B+ 65
M, 10/25: 53/15/59/A-/B�/B+ 40
The first number in the line of data refers to IBD's SmartSelect Composite Rating for a stock. It can be noted that that number has been improving since the 9/10/04 nadiring.
The next number is CXW's EPS percentile ranking among the more than 8 thousand stocks in IBD's database. It can be seen that CXW's 2Q04 earnings, reported on 8/05/04, took it down 5 percentile points (from '20' to '15').
The first letter in the line of data refers to CXW's industry-group's price strength. As the General has said, it correlates, somewhat, with the numerical ranking within the 197 groups as shown at the right end of each line of data.
While it can be noted that said numerical ranking worsened after CXW had nadirred on 9/10/04, note the improvement in said number between last Friday (65th) and yesterday (40th) and the corresponding letter rating going from a "B" to an "A-".
The fact that the CS-S/S group may be getting healthier is a positive thing.
To be concluded in Part III.