How much is too much? REITs will have to make
compelling arguments that the equity is committed to
accretive projects. Issuing shares for the sake of
all-too-vague "future opportunities," like those issued by
Prison Realty Trust ( (NYSE:PZN - news) ) last week, are
likely to be critically scrutinized by investors. A
plethora of secondaries and gimmicks like UITs will signal
the top. Hopefully REITs have learned, making 1999 a
pleasant surprise.
The copies can be purchased from the American
Correctional Association. I do not know if anyone can get them
or just members. You could get the information from
the ACA home page. Look on the CCA or PZN home page
and there is a link to ACA.
But, as long as you and all other PZN investors
take the attitude that since there is crime . Why not
profit from it? And all the criminals take the attitude
that crime pays. Nothing is ever gonna change. I do
believe that criminals should spend their entire
sentance. I have never said otherwise. Diamond D your post
was a good one. I would like to know where i can find
copies of these standards so i can review them. If you
or someone else can point me in the right direction
i would be grateful.
....believe me, as a real true blooded American
raised with values, I would love to see the rate of
crime drop to zero. However, with the society of today
accepting such low standards as evidenced right before our
eyes and ears every day, I think it's going to take a
lot changes to change the direction of things to
where our need for prisons is reduced. I hope and pray
that will be the case----at least for a trend
reversal. In the meantime I maintain my conviction it will
take 'conviction' and that means more need for
imprisonment penalties. When I see or sense we have laws with
sustance and appropriate penalties to really reduce crime
I will sell my PZN---and even consider 'shorting'
it ---which is not my investment style. I figure my
investment in PZN is the only way I can make crime pay
because I sure to H--- won't participate otherwise----for
what it's worth.
Government will be in the loop even if the
facilities are not managed by unionized CO's. Every
contracting agency has what is called a contract monitor.
This individual insures that we operate within the
contract guidelines. Furthermore, the state where the
prison is located does audits which could shut the
prison down if unfavorable. Topping the list is the fact
that all CCA/PZN facilities must attain ACA
accreditation. These standards within themselves would almost
eliminate the need for the governments big eye's. Again we
as a private company have standards above those ran
by government. Opinion!
Pzn has been testing its low looking at the chart
shows Pzn has preformed VERY!! poorly in relation to
the Dow and the S&P and so on during the entire year
of 98. It has to penetrate the 25 level before any
real rally would begin and it looks like judging from
today no one wants it to move to that level. As far as
occupancy rates and PZN. Do you guys see the contradiction
in wanting crime to decline but at the same time
wanting the occupancy rate for PZN beds to increase? I
saw another post where it was mentioned that "If CCA
owned the prison but the government's unionized CO's
managed it . Net margins would only be 16%. But, if CCA
owned and managed it net margins would widen to 40%".
Maybe i'm misreading it but sounds like if pzn can get
the governments out of the loop profits will
increase. If the government is out of the loop. Who will be
there to keep an eye on Pzn's activities? Its just a
question. If someone can give me a reasonable answer i'm
willing to listen. I hate to keep sounding like a stick
in the mud. But i feel these are reasonable
questions.
It's like traders are in and out of this PZN. I'm
an investor just like you. It sold off today. It's a
real steal as far as I'm concerned. Thank you traders
for the opportunity you seem to have created. It's
much more likely the occupancy rate of the prisons
will be at very high rates. It sure beats what can
happen to hotel/motel occupancy rates----as evidenced in
that market trend right now. I'd rather put my money
on the probable occupancy winner. Plus it's one way
to get some of your hard earned money back from the
government. Best of everything to the real investors!!!!!!
Great post regarding crime increase in economic
downturn. But we don't necessarily have to wait. The public
is currently fed up with the early release programs
and are pressuring states to keep inmates for a
greater portion of their acutal sentences. The prison
populations will increase despite a decrease in crime. I
doubt there will be empty cells no matter what economic
conditions are. IMHO, from a technical perspective PZN is
currently testing lows. I anticipate some nice gains this
year after that task is complete. If the bears are
right, we can also anticipate the crowd sniffing around
for good dividends. I'll stay put with my 15% loss.
Increases in crime is what drives the need for
additional prisons. In strong economies, as we have been
experiencing, the rate of crime generally goes down. As the
economy weakens and employment rates decline crime then
begins to climb. Of course, the more crime----the more
prison requirements----assuming 'the process' does it's
job. If you believe we will continue to enjoy strong
economic growth in the near/longer term, then don't invest
in PZN. I believe history repeats and our economic
cycle will, unfortunately, experience a downturn in the
not too distant future. How long can we absorb
personal 'bankruptcies' at the current record pace---in
the best of times? Imagine what's ahead if things
take a turn for the worst. I don't like sounding so
negative but just trying to be realistic. PZN seems to
have a very good future from what my crystal ball
tells me--- It's a contrarian way to find value but I'm
putting some money on it NOW.
Great post. Very informative.Keep it up.
Doc's solution to not having to play that "game"
and be subject to the landlord's whims, was to BE THE
LANDLORD! And the REIT is the mechanism by and through
which management expects that highly capital intensive
goal can best be realized, hence the
merger.
It's simply a matter of investing capital and human
resources for the greatest return on investment and,
expectedly, a commensurately more assured share value
enhancement and appreciation.
In CCA's 1Q98 CC, Doc
said that the potential market size for a PZN was
TWENTY TIMES (20x) that for a CCA (a management ompany).
But to be a player in "that market" requires access
to ever greater amounts of capital. It's an example
of the Golden Rule: "Whoever has the gold, makes the
rules."
This "ownership" versus "management" situation reminds
me of an old Amos 'n Andy radio bit where the
Kingfish is trying to persuade a reluctant Andy that air
travel is safe but Andy will have none of it.
"If
you's in a car an' the motor quits on you, you knows
where you is.", Andy tells the Kingfish. "But if you's
up there in a aeroplane an' the motor quits, where
is you?" "I's a believer in good ol' terra firma.",
Andy concludes. "The more firmer, the less terror."