What is it about the number 5? Every shorter on every board for every beaten down stock I've ever seen always predicts 5! Guess it's kind of hard to say 0, and 1 or 2 is nearly as absurd. So they say 5. So far not a single one of those stocks I watched go through a debacle has gotten anywhere close to 5. It's the magic short number for sure - and that tells us it's a prediction based on not much more than hot air.
The worst one of recent memory (just offhand) is QHGI - reached 7.375 on the back of Medicare whistleblower lawsuit taken up by the government, subsequent collapse of earnings blah blah blah. Now back at 13 and showing strength - the whole experience will probably be mostly just a memory one year after its crash.
Despairing longs, shorts predicting of 5 or bankruptcy, a few voices saying "wait a minute, it isn't as bad as THIS price suggests." Where have I seen all this before? And how many times have I made money by showing some iron balls on such occasions?
Fact is, I know why longs are kicking around prospects. What I can't understand is the naysayers burning so much print to tell everyone who'll listen that the sky is falling. The potential profits shorting here are too small, and the threat of recovery too large to make PZN a fantastic short play. Try some outlandish internet stocks for a no-brainer short. So why are the doomsday gang here - to maliciously punish the stock? to be "right"? because they loving heaping insult on injury? small-minded ego needs?
There are some possible technical scenarios that would put the stock this low, but there are other possible outcomes, too. I'd like to think we will see 15 before we go below 9 (barring any more major negative news). I'm sorry to see such gloom and doom here. I don't like seeing the term "mismanaged company" being used so frequently without challenge. Obviously there was an accounting error and many think it was intentional. So that makes management either inept or corrupt. IMHO PZN seems to be managed very well by folks who have, at least temporarily, behaved foolishly or immorally. Also, be patient. The debacle is only a few weeks old and you expect the company to be responding in some very significant ways already. Give them some time to think a strategy through!
I hate to be the doom and gloom guy, because I have publicly supported Doc. The first problem with the conference call was the announcement of the "accounting mistake" and change in fees. The second problem was Doc's demeanor in the CC. Result, downgrades and running for the exits. In the week that followed, one significant shareholder (now a former shareholder) ferreted out an additional problem: lower occupancy levels due to Youngstown. When this got publicized, it was semantically described as a freeze on federal prisoners, which wasn't accurate. That gave the company the opportunbity to address the occpancy issue as "squelching rumors", instead of admitting the problem. Bad attempt at spin.
I'm not sure how to fix the problem. Right now it seems that Doc is maintaining his atitude that he's right and the rest of the world is wrong. Juggling OPCO's management isn't the solution. When it's announced, don't expect favorable reaction.
Yes, time is always needed to think through a strategy. But the thinking is being done by the guys who brought us the REIT strategy which for the past year has proved to be foolhardy. I suspect more unsettling financing news will be forthcoming before anything of positive substance.