Took a short vacation and when I returned found
the 100+ rambling posts here more tiring than a July
day at Six Flags with the kids. IMHO the question of
Doc's credibility and the structure of OPCO continue to
be smokescreens that hide the impact of union
efforts to demolish this company. Check out
www.afscme.org/. Under Pension Fund Activism (8/98 Resolution of
Funds): "that AFSCME develop and disseminate to
affiliates model investment and proxy-voting
guidelines...and information on labor-friendly investment
vehicles...in order to...promote the well-being of pension fund
participants as workers as well as beneficiaries." Also, under
AFSCME Leader issue 6/99, a 4/99 request to contact the
International Dept. of Research and Collective Bargaining
Services "in order to develop a network of members who
serve as pension fund trustees and
Note that the mean broker recommendation was 1.27 3
months ago, 1.88 2 months ago and 2.15 last month and
now--therefore a much larger drop PRIOR to all of the OPCO fee
There seems to be more concrete evidence
that PZN's price is affected by union pressures and
the $$ behind them than by credibility and OPCO
issues. If Doc is arrogant, manipulative, sneaky and
brilliant then he has the qualities needed to fight the
Pkn4mom apparently thinks that unions control the
Wall Street analysts and others in the financial
community who follow PZN. This is hooey! Go back and read
Jonathan Litt and Jerry Doctrow's May and June 1999
reports on PZN--they use publicly-available information
and their own impression of the fee readjustments
between Opco and PZN to arrive at a conclusion that they
do not feel as confident as they once did about PZN.
This has nothing to do with union efforts to attack
privatization. No one following the stock--even those who are
more negative on it--believe that privatization is
being rolled back (many research reports deal with
political/legislative issues as well as P.R. fallout from things like
This board is so polarized between personal attacks on
Doc Crants, who cannot be the whole problem here, and
personal attacks on perceived "union shills," who may just
be people down on the company because they lost
money (or they could be short sellers). People on this
board need to quit obsessing about each others'
personal agendas (yes, there are probably several people
from PZN posting on this board at any given time as
well as others who do not wish the company well for a
variety of reasons). This is the reality of the Internet.
I believe that there is only one thing that
controls Wall Street and that is money. What I am trying
to point out is that analyst opinions were changing
prior to the fee adjustment and it is interesting to
note that prior to the fee adjustment there were union
efforts to insure that pension monies (certainly not
"small change") were invested in the union workers' best
interest. The true area of disagreement between you and me
is that you believe the analysts use public
information only to create fair and unbiased assessments.
for your info the combined divs. .55x2 + $1.65
special div = $2.75 less .10 paid 1st & 2nd Quarter for
the special Div. we end up with $2.65 to paid by yr
end. So according to my simple math at the current
price 13 1/2 we should end up with a yeild equivilant
to 39.24 % annually or say 19.63% for the 6 month
period I may be
wrong as you will soon see as others
pick this post apart but I'm using numbers that have
been used and posted in the past.
downward was related to me purchasing an additional 3500
shares this afternoon. It's standard procedure for a
stock to turn downward after I purchase it.
Your analysis is NOT doom & gloom.
all confident that the stock's been killed because of
Doc's arrogance and miscue on the OPCO fees; and this
has been confirmed by the price dropping to 9+ which
we all agree is overkill and the result of certain
brokerages punishing Doc.
However, IMHO there is a
limit to how much the brokerages will pay for the
pleasure of punishing.
To-date I've felt there is
a piece of the puzzle missing to fully account for
the price drop. I think you've given some coherence
to all the factors; DILUTION, REDUCED CAPEX (and
therefore reduced expansion and reduced growth rate),
STAGNANT DIVIDEND growth.
What you've outlined is
probably why the rebound will stabilize around 17 - 18 and
basically remain there the next 12 months.
So as not
to be misunderstood re: motivation. I've resumed
buying at 13 ish and will continue to 15 ish.
Here's the latest rumor mill. Doc & Baby are
history; board is supposed to be currently interviewing
recognizable names to head PZN. Names Wall St knows and who
bring credibility (meaning: access to capital). I know
the Crants' have built this company and there are
going to be those of you who say this is a bad thing,
but there are numerous examples on the NYSE where a
new chief was brought in and the stock reacted
positively before the guy even set one foot in the office ie
McCaw & Netscape (Barksdale), IBM (Gerstner), CPQ (when
Pfeifer 1st joined) FAM (Bottdorf) etc. THIS IS ONLY WHAT
I HEARD; PLEASE DO NOT BLAST ME. HOWEVER, I BELIEVE
THIS TO BE TRUE........IMHO.
I'm wondering what
yous guys think the stock will do, up down unch?
This makes my average aquistion share price at
$15.33 when considering my previous scenerio this leaves
me at $12 3/4 by years end. Of course some capital
appreciation would be appreciated. In either case it's
imaterial as I'm in for the long haul.
In a few
years we'll all be happy as a horse eating SWEET FEED.