PZN is somewhat 'shopped out' by the traders. More investors, fewer traders should stablize price, and replace some of the 20/20 hindsight with patience and calm confidence. Am I living in Disneyland, or is this a realistic possibilty?
I think your analysis is right on, especially the conjecture concerning how the whole Strategic Investor thing might play out. I've expressed similar concerns in recents posts.
One correction though, I've heard from several people qualified to know that to remain within the REIT requirements, PZN can't lower the dividend any lower than ~$1.90-$2.00.
I think there's a good chance that we will in effect be holding a junk bond disguised as a stock until more things become clear with the SI, success in getting the new biz and a couple of quarters of earnings.
First, thanks to baltbear and RetiredPaperman for your correction of my mis-statement (ok, call it what it was, a screwup) on the lowball estimate for fy2000 divs. I am hardly ever guilty of being too conservative with #s! :-) Maybe I'm just getting gun-shy here. As for you, tmacker....Ok, maybe Beta has a more specific technical mathematical definition than I was aware of. Just call it 'fuzzy downside potential' or simply 'risk' or 'uncertainty'. I used it (maybe wrongly) to represent the great scary unknowns out there that make PZN more speculative then, oh, say laddered zero-coupon treasuries. (oh, gee, did I say that: with all the interest rate gyrations lately, and half the IC trying to out-guess AG, maybe even widows and orphans need to bury some platinum bars in the back yard?) Nope, I don't claim to know what your 'n' is. Some things are not amenable to prior calculation. As far as 'perceived risk' is concerned, is there any other kind? I seem to remember a semi-famous quote from FDR on that.