check my recap and correct where
With 100M bonds at 12.25, down from 400M (due to
excess cost of funds), LOC expanded from 650M to 1000M
(at the price of 'enhanced' rates), (some) improved
transparency wrt CCA, the last (.55+.05) dividend paid in
cash, the yapping law-hounds still chasing their tails
in the kennel, and Mike Q. replacing the old guard
at OPCO, the most interesting remaining question (to
me) remains whether the 'Strategic Investor' will be
brought on, or whether the 'special' will be in some
non-cash (pick one from column A or one from column B)
form. Since, for all intents and purposes, Doc has the
draft pick in his pocket, it seems only reasonable that
he will not bring on board anyone likely to be
sufficiently assertive to cause him (more) grief down the
road. This is why I believe that opting for the
non-cash special is a bigger negative than many might
suppose. It's really important to get a strong, confident,
and knowledgeable voice added to the chorus.
Dissonance may 'jazz' up the board, and keep Doc's attention
focused on foresight: it's isn't a pure case of 'what
have you done for us lately', but he does seem to have
been resting on his (arguably well-deserved) laurels
more than we can afford.
Does this make PZN
more appealing to the buy-it-and-park-it IRA
investors, who can easily afford a 2, 3, or even 4 year
timeframe of longer-term rebuilding while collecting
Even with a dividend cut to 1.35,
and common appreciation to 13.50, you have 10% yield
plus capital appreciation. Are these numbers
conservative enough to make a tradeoff of decreased
Beta/decreased yield scale non-linearly? Or are there enough
buyers still out there in the high yield/high Beta camp?
The clear decrease in ADV could be taken as an
indication that PZN is somew
PZN is somewhat 'shopped out' by the traders.
More investors, fewer traders should stablize price,
and replace some of the 20/20 hindsight with patience
and calm confidence. Am I living in Disneyland, or is
this a realistic possibilty?
I think your analysis is right on, especially the
conjecture concerning how the whole Strategic Investor thing
might play out. I've expressed similar concerns in
One correction though, I've heard
from several people qualified to know that to remain
within the REIT requirements, PZN can't lower the
dividend any lower than ~$1.90-$2.00.
there's a good chance that we will in effect be holding a
junk bond disguised as a stock until more things
become clear with the SI, success in getting the new biz
and a couple of quarters of earnings.
numbers conservative enough to
make a tradeoff of decreased Beta/decreased yield
Okay, now one
syllable at a time for us slow folks: are you saying that
the 'decreased Beta' (which I take to mean less
risk/less price volatility/greater security) outweighs the
'decreased yield' i.e.: cut-down dividends?
I don't buy
the argument that the small and mostly symbolic
events of the last 30-60 days even remotely improve
investor confidence so much that the 'Beta' goes down
measurably. Actually, as I understand it, 'Beta' is a TA
calculation based on (essentially) objective numbers of
actual past performance, not forward-looking estimates,
and certainly not any 'market pyschology' measures,
if there are any effective measures for such
To answer your last question: yes, you are living in
Disneyland (not FrontierLand or TomorrowLand, but
FantasyLand!) if you think that PZN is 'n' times less risky
than on 5/12/99, where 'n' is greater than the ratio
of old divs to new, with capital depreciation
factored in to represent the hit taken on the price.
I would also like to see a dividend reduction,
which I believe I've mentioned in prior posts. A good
counter-argument was made (I believe by MK) that while a dividend
reduction would be the best financial move, it might be
greeted negatively (for a while) for investors,
ESPECIALLY if the magnititude of the cut was too small, ie.
if you can only cut from .55 to .53, don't do
One other point though, I'm assuming the earlier
mentioned dividend floor levels did not take into account
the possible tax law change allowing 90% payout
instead of 95%.
As I've said before, at this level
with our share price, the big dividend is a big red
flag to most potential investors.
An Inmate while at a Jackson Tennessee Hospital
Guarded by CCA employees escapes after kicking a CCa
guard in the groin and taking his weapon. The CCa
housed Inmate then flees the hospital and conducts a
carjacking , with an hostage, then proceded with local,
tennessee highway patrol, and CCA officals chasing.The
vehicle proceded west on I-40 toward memphis where the
vehicle caught fire, The escapee fled on foot leaving his
hostage, and the 38 cal. rev. taken from the CCA guard.
The 5' 4" 130 lb. Inmate was later captured in an
abonded house near memphis.The entire matter is under
This is the kind of security and public protection CCA
provides to the public. I bet the people of western
Tennessee can sleep well knowing their tax dollars are
wasted on this poor excuse of security.
I want to make three points in rebuttal:
- Thank you.
2 - You're absolutely right.
I have tried to read just about everything on this
board, good bad, or indifferent, and NOTHING I have seen
you post qualifies as a 'minor point'. The least of
your posts exceeds the most of most of (huh?) every
(now how would that go in english,
There has been just too much
sunshine and roses here lately, so I hope you will forgive
my rude inaccruate and delibrately misleading
subject line (not to mention my tangle-finged
Escapees Still On The Run - (ORLANDO) -- A saw
the size of a fingernail file is being blamed for
Monday's break from
the Orange County Jail. The
three-inch hacksaw was able to cut through an escape proof
steel bar. No one reported hearing
anything when a
two-by-five foot pane of safety glass crashed and shattered,
falling three stories to the ground. Somehow the
saw was smuggled inside and somehow a friend received
word to be waiting in a car. One escapee Robert
has only been in a cell two days... the other, a
convicted bank robber... Michael LaVelle had been there ten
You Call This A Jail? - (FORKS) -- Officials at the
Olympic Corrections Center near the town of Forks are
another prison break, the fifth inmate to escape from the
Olympic Peninsula minimum-security facility in the past
Avram Morar was reportedly doing time
for second-degree burglary and bail jumping. Morar
was last spotted yesterday near
a Forest Service
road off U-S Highway-one-oh-one. Three others escapees
from the prison also remain at large.
See Tennessean news paper
Jackson sun, news
Memphid Commerical appeal
5' 4" 130 lb.
Kicks CCA Employee in the groin, takes his weapon,
flees the hospital carjacks, and takes the operator of
the vehicle hostage, Procedes to enter Interstate
I-40 west bound,Just before reaching Memphis Tn. the
vehicle develops a problem, catches fire. The Inmate
flees on foot, and was later captured inside an abonded
house near memphis.
There goes the rest of the
credit line, the state, and county, will have to be paid
for their servicies in the capture of the Inmate. The
Ladies car will have to be replaced, and the law suit
which follows should just about take care of the 350mm
"There goes the rest of the credit line, the
state, and county, will have to be paid for their
servicies in the capture of the Inmate."
"The Ladies car will have
to be replaced, and the law suit which follows
should just about take care of the 350mm credit
Insurance if needed.
branch of afscme do you work with/for?