I am trying to determine how much of PZN's stock
price decline is company specific, and how much is
directly related to the broad sell-off in REIT stocks. If
you look at any REIT index or mutual fund, you will
see that the 10%-20% loss in PZN over the past few
months (depending upon the exact time period) is very
comparable to the performance of the industry as a
If PZN is just being sold off with the rest of the
REITs, then I think it is a bargain. The company
specific issues are what worries me greatly...
not that knowledgeable about this company, so I am
hoping someone can respond and shed some light on the
following two quesitons: 1) How strong is the possibility
that PZN will not pay the special dividend, in cash,
by the end of the year? And, 2) If the special
dividend is not paid, in cash, what do you expect will
happen to the stock?
Thanks in advance.
I did a little back testing of my own. If you
were fortunate enough to have bought PZN on Nov 1 (@
$23.125) and sold on April 30th (@ $19.5) you would have
lost ONLY 15.7% of your wealth (the "B" period) but if
you had the misfortune to purchase PZN on May 1 at
$19.8125 and sell today at $9.625 (the "A" period)you
would have lost 51.4% of your wealth.
guess with the "B" period coming Monday, I'll double
down on PZN in hopes of only losing 15.7% over the
next six months. PLEASE, someone send me a reminder to
Sell on May 1, 2000. Assuming of course there is
anything to sell by then.
Lurkers aquainted with Yale
Hirsch's Stock Trader's Almanac will not find your posting
a revelation, but for those who are unaquainted
with the stock market's patterns of behavior, this
could be something of an eye opener.
consider the stock market's performance, as measured by
the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or the
Standard & Poors Composite Index (familiarly referred to
as the S&P 500), and you consider these respective
indexes' performances over the following 6-month
A. May 1st of a given calendar year through October
31st of the same calendar year,
and you compare
B. November 1st (of the same calendar
year as in "A," above) through April 30th of the
proximate succeeding calendar year,
over time, has been significant, if not downright
Although the 2000 Stock Trader's Almanac is due to begin
shipping in November/December, the General took the
liberty of calc'ing what it should tell you (and even a
possibly surprising look ahead as to what the 2001 Stock
Trader's Almanac may reveal in a year from now).
couple of cases in point in the 49 years reckoned from
1. The DJIA has gained about five times as many
points during the "B" periods than it has during the "A"
2. Had there been an S&P 500 Index Fund around in
1950 (the General doesn't believe there was) that you
could've invested in but ONLY for the period of EITHER "A"
OR "B," and you neglect any management fees,
commissions, withdrawal penalties, or charges associated
therewith, as of the end of 4/30/99, here's what an initial
$10,000.00 investment would've amounted to in those 49 years
and the CAGR it calc's to (shown
PERIOD "A": $25,690 (1.94%)
PERIOD "B": $346,215
With only 3 more trading days left to finish Period
"A" for 1999 (the first half of the 50th year
comparison since 1950), the S&P 500 is down 53.27 points or
-4.0% from where it began a/o 4/30/99's close @
1335.18. If it should finish in the red by at least -0.1%,
it will be the first time* it will have done so in
nine years (since 1990's "recession time" when it was
a -8.1% performer).
* If you want to split
hairs, last year's (1998's) "A" period was down 0.15
points or a -0.013492242%.
to buy stocks, at the end of October. General
probably remembers the statistics but the differences on
returns from Nov to April versus May to Nov (I believe
that about the time frame) is quite
Most chartist I survey do feel this sell off has not
completed itself yet though.
the end of this month. Every wonder why October
is always the scariest month....booo. Why? In order
to have all their accounting straight for year end
capital gains distributions.
They will difinitely
be dumping losers again I'd think to off set gains
they have taking again this year to lower year end
capital gains distributions. They obviously like to lower
the distributions because it allows them to retain
more money to collect more fees on.
that might be on interest....according to a pal that
covers a bunch of mutual funds.
You're exactly right. That would clearly be the
way to structure the SI's entrance into this tangled
web, AND pay the SI in cash. If there really are a
handful of people who want in on this deal if they can
avoid being paid the special dividend.
The SI doesn't want the Special Dividend AT ALL
and I wonder if the deal couldn't be structured so
that he misses it. Assuming PZN has the liquidity (or
could draw on their credit line) they could pay the
special dividend right before receiving the $100 mm from
the SI. As long as it's structured properly, the bank
shouldn't care whether or not the SI gets the special.
Am I missing something?