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  • Need_High_Yield Need_High_Yield Nov 23, 1999 2:16 PM Flag

    Quick check again on the numbers

    It seems that you are calculating by combining
    9-month numbers and annual projections in the same
    breath. Subtracting OPCO's 12 mo. losses from PZN's 9 mo.
    earnings, etc. Calculating P/E based on 9 mo. figures.
    That, or else I got lost in your analysis completely.

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    • 9 months...Opco annualized from the 3rd quarter
      number of $32mm loss equal loss of $128mm. PZN
      annualized would be $225mm for combined of $97mm or $.81
      combined ($97mm/119mm)....with a 40% tax bracket woulld
      give them net earnings of $.48/shares or 19

      Annualizing Opco from the full year so
      far...loss$84mm...would give Opco a yearly loss of $112M or combined
      income of $113m($225PZN -112Opco) or $.94 non
      taxed.....$.56 fully taxed or P/E of 16.

      • 2 Replies to flipper_58
      • I agree it's hard to do a quick and dirty on this
        due to all the accounting issues. For what it's
        worth, if you take CCA and PZN's combined after-tax
        earnings from the third quarter of last year, you get
        about 93 cents per share on an annual run rate on the
        current share base. Obviously, occupancy is down since
        then and interest costs are up significantly. On the
        plus side, they've got a lot more

        Pre-dilution from an SI, I don't think an EPS number of 80
        cents to $1.00 would be unreasonable for a combined
        entity at 95% occupancy.

      • He said Chris Haley put out report
        saying PZN to go back to a CCorporation and
        estimated 2000 and 2001 eps as a C corp.
        He disagreed
        with some of the assumptions made
        by the
        analyst.This report may have caused todays selling.
        He felt
        last week's selling due to an
        instittution dumping
        shares.The stock rebounded when the seller stopped selling.

        Calif. City is starting to get inmates until
        Federal contract is placed.They have met
        with several
        SI's but nothing to report yet.
        PZN's Board will
        meet with MLP and evaluate
        all options and the
        Board may decide to Reit
        or convert back to a C
        Corp. They could Reit
        this year and convert back to
        CCorp next year
        or they could not become a Reit. If
        they go back to a CCorp it will probably require
        vote by shareholders.If they go back to a
        they can not re Reit for a least 4 years.

    • to add back the $80MM deferred tax charge that
      resulted from the merger; Q3 also incluedes w/o off of 9MM
      loan costs, which shouldn't be annualized.

      to do a "quick and dirty" on this beast.

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