It seems that you are calculating by combining 9-month numbers and annual projections in the same breath. Subtracting OPCO's 12 mo. losses from PZN's 9 mo. earnings, etc. Calculating P/E based on 9 mo. figures. That, or else I got lost in your analysis completely.
9 months...Opco annualized from the 3rd quarter number of $32mm loss equal loss of $128mm. PZN annualized would be $225mm for combined of $97mm or $.81 combined ($97mm/119mm)....with a 40% tax bracket woulld give them net earnings of $.48/shares or 19 P/E...right?
Annualizing Opco from the full year so far...loss$84mm...would give Opco a yearly loss of $112M or combined income of $113m($225PZN -112Opco) or $.94 non taxed.....$.56 fully taxed or P/E of 16.
I agree it's hard to do a quick and dirty on this due to all the accounting issues. For what it's worth, if you take CCA and PZN's combined after-tax earnings from the third quarter of last year, you get about 93 cents per share on an annual run rate on the current share base. Obviously, occupancy is down since then and interest costs are up significantly. On the plus side, they've got a lot more beds.
Pre-dilution from an SI, I don't think an EPS number of 80 cents to $1.00 would be unreasonable for a combined entity at 95% occupancy.
He said Chris Haley put out report today saying PZN to go back to a CCorporation and Chris estimated 2000 and 2001 eps as a C corp. He disagreed with some of the assumptions made by the analyst.This report may have caused todays selling. He felt last week's selling due to an instittution dumping shares.The stock rebounded when the seller stopped selling.
Calif. City is starting to get inmates until new Federal contract is placed.They have met with several SI's but nothing to report yet. PZN's Board will meet with MLP and evaluate all options and the Board may decide to Reit or convert back to a C Corp. They could Reit this year and convert back to CCorp next year or they could not become a Reit. If they go back to a CCorp it will probably require a vote by shareholders.If they go back to a CCorp they can not re Reit for a least 4 years.