for some time. Do you concur with Brendy 45?
Unless I'm a fool and that could very well be the case
I'm looking toward positive announcements next week
regarding Divs and SI. My expectations of PZN is based
solely on the fact that 12,000 beds are coming on line
by yr end 2000 and FFO will be $220-240million This
should support a div around $1.80 You seem to have good
read on the financials what do u say in this moment of
Absolutely; restoring credibility and injecting
capital are both required. I just don't think it's
realistic to expect that Doc is leaving. My logic might be
simplistic, but the way I figure it, if Doc was actually
willing to leave Lehmann would have been able to find a
Strategic Investor 2 months ago when we were at
My prediction: Doc stays, PZN gives up 1 or 2 Board
seats, the SI brings in the new CFO,we get the $s at
approximate market prices, no idea how much $s we get. I'm
50/50 on whether jr. stays; I'm leaning towards
thinking he'll stay. Otherwise, he'd already be gone.
you can bet your life I would pick and choose who
lives and dies on this board maybe not all at one time.
I must say in defense of PZN they have been very
cooperate in answering my calls. You have to work your way
through to the directors but they have been very
I personally think it would be a mistake ridding
PZN of Doc but I'm only relating what I understand is
the strategy. PZN even admits they have a bad rep by
the analyst. Don't you think restoring credibility
and injecting capitol goes together in kicking this
thing in the ass to move ahead?
here's what I'm hearing. SI wants to reprice deal
because of drop in stock price - result is about 30% more
dilution. PZN has NO CHOICE, board will do the deal. Seen
numbers and 95% occupancy is breakeven. They can have
over 100% occupancy. Board either meets today or over
the weekend and we should here something by Tuesday.
MY GUESS AND OPINION ONLY IS THAT WE GET A $500
MILLION SI WE TAKE TREMENDOUS DILUTION BUT WE GET A
DIVIDEND OF $1.00-1.25. NEXT YEAR PZN GOES TO A C CORP.
STOCK IS DEAD UNTIL THEY DELIVER FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE Q's.
OH DOC & FAMILY (ET ALL) ARE HISTORY. ONLY PERSON
WHO STAYS IS QUINLAN BECAUSE OF HIS CONTACTS BUT HE
EVEN MIGHT GET THE AXE. JUST MHO
If events unfold exactly as you lay them out then
I would view that as a mild positive. The removal
of the current regime as well as uncertainty
surrounding the SI would be viewed quite positively. The key
question is going to be how bad is the dilution? One thing
that is puzzling is the notion of repricing the deal
because of the stock price drop. Why would the price drop
if they had a deal at a higher level? More likely
that the potential SI's were never interested in
paying the higher price from the start.
the stock price may do some whipsawwing, and
probably wind up down short term, but if a deal can be cut
to solidify $1 or so EPS long term, the thing will
be back into double digits over the long
The private prison model is still a viable model. The
problem lies with management credibility and short term
financing, both of which would be fixed by your scenario.
I don't want to leave the impression that I
expect bad news in the days ahead. I'm just concerned
that the silence may be ominous and the stock action
has been ugly. That said I hope we have good news
soon. I'd also reiterate that I believe PZN needs a big
equity infusion, not $100MM, and that recent price
action points to concerns about cash flow shortfalls
going forward. Good luck.
expectations of PZN is based
on the fact that 12,000
beds are coming on line
end 2000 and FFO will be
$220-240million This should
support a div around $1.80
Two questions: Are the beds going to be filled, and
with cca leaking like a sieve, are they going to be
able to pay us rent?
We can't just look at pzn. We
have to look through them to cca.
I think any
predictions based on pzn are pipe dreams unless someone can
show me I'm wrong.