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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • buselli45 buselli45 Dec 9, 1999 11:49 PM Flag

    Twodownpress: You have been silent

    for some time. Do you concur with Brendy 45?
    Unless I'm a fool and that could very well be the case
    I'm looking toward positive announcements next week
    regarding Divs and SI. My expectations of PZN is based
    solely on the fact that 12,000 beds are coming on line
    by yr end 2000 and FFO will be $220-240million This
    should support a div around $1.80 You seem to have good
    read on the financials what do u say in this moment of
    crisis??

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Absolutely; restoring credibility and injecting
      capital are both required. I just don't think it's
      realistic to expect that Doc is leaving. My logic might be
      simplistic, but the way I figure it, if Doc was actually
      willing to leave Lehmann would have been able to find a
      Strategic Investor 2 months ago when we were at
      $13.5.

      My prediction: Doc stays, PZN gives up 1 or 2 Board
      seats, the SI brings in the new CFO,we get the $s at
      approximate market prices, no idea how much $s we get. I'm
      50/50 on whether jr. stays; I'm leaning towards
      thinking he'll stay. Otherwise, he'd already be gone.

    • you can bet your life I would pick and choose who
      lives and dies on this board maybe not all at one time.
      I must say in defense of PZN they have been very
      cooperate in answering my calls. You have to work your way
      through to the directors but they have been very
      cooperative.

      I personally think it would be a mistake ridding
      PZN of Doc but I'm only relating what I understand is
      the strategy. PZN even admits they have a bad rep by
      the analyst. Don't you think restoring credibility
      and injecting capitol goes together in kicking this
      thing in the ass to move ahead?

    • here's what I'm hearing. SI wants to reprice deal
      because of drop in stock price - result is about 30% more
      dilution. PZN has NO CHOICE, board will do the deal. Seen
      numbers and 95% occupancy is breakeven. They can have
      over 100% occupancy. Board either meets today or over
      the weekend and we should here something by Tuesday.
      MY GUESS AND OPINION ONLY IS THAT WE GET A $500
      MILLION SI WE TAKE TREMENDOUS DILUTION BUT WE GET A
      DIVIDEND OF $1.00-1.25. NEXT YEAR PZN GOES TO A C CORP.
      STOCK IS DEAD UNTIL THEY DELIVER FOR 2 CONSECUTIVE Q's.
      OH DOC & FAMILY (ET ALL) ARE HISTORY. ONLY PERSON
      WHO STAYS IS QUINLAN BECAUSE OF HIS CONTACTS BUT HE
      EVEN MIGHT GET THE AXE. JUST MHO

      • 3 Replies to twodownpress
      • If events unfold exactly as you lay them out then
        I would view that as a mild positive. The removal
        of the current regime as well as uncertainty
        surrounding the SI would be viewed quite positively. The key
        question is going to be how bad is the dilution? One thing
        that is puzzling is the notion of repricing the deal
        because of the stock price drop. Why would the price drop
        if they had a deal at a higher level? More likely
        that the potential SI's were never interested in
        paying the higher price from the start.

      • responce. Something in the wind today let's see what happens by Wed. I have mny questions to ask if time is available I'll pst something this weekend.

      • the stock price may do some whipsawwing, and
        probably wind up down short term, but if a deal can be cut
        to solidify $1 or so EPS long term, the thing will
        be back into double digits over the long
        haul.

        The private prison model is still a viable model. The
        problem lies with management credibility and short term
        financing, both of which would be fixed by your scenario.

    • I don't want to leave the impression that I
      expect bad news in the days ahead. I'm just concerned
      that the silence may be ominous and the stock action
      has been ugly. That said I hope we have good news
      soon. I'd also reiterate that I believe PZN needs a big
      equity infusion, not $100MM, and that recent price
      action points to concerns about cash flow shortfalls
      going forward. Good luck.

    • . My
      expectations of PZN is based
      solely
      on the fact that 12,000
      beds are coming on line
      by yr
      end 2000 and FFO will be

      $220-240million This should
      support a div around $1.80

      Two questions: Are the beds going to be filled, and
      with cca leaking like a sieve, are they going to be
      able to pay us rent?
      We can't just look at pzn. We
      have to look through them to cca.
      I think any
      predictions based on pzn are pipe dreams unless someone can
      show me I'm wrong.

 
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