In trying to be objective in estimating a future price you'd have to look at the industry. WHC trades at 10 times 2000 earnings estimates, CRN at 7 times 2000 earnings estimates, CSCQ at 8 times 2000 earnings estimates. If we call the average 8.5 as the average P/E that puts C Corp PZN at $8.5 next year.
I'm not saying I agree with the above analysis but if you trying to be conservative you can't assume industry P/E's will expand, especially with a overall market at very high valuations and rates increasing.
Growth rate? The problem is at these stock price levels I don't see anyone in the industry as being largely accretive. I have not done the numbers but roughly looking around it is not promising. So I see the growth rate hindered for awhile I'd think, sound right?
It's interesting to look at CRN for example. They are trying to raise $350mm for a new project, debt and equity. Now I don't know what pro-forma numbers are on their project but look at their return on equity....8%. their stock sells below book value. How they are going to get their deal done I don't know.
Bricks and mortar marketing are killing the margins in this industry it appears. Companies like CRN just are not big enough at this time it seems to absorb such big expenses. Doc realized this problem and attempted this REIT structure to help raise big capital, out of the frying pan and into the fire.
IMO, PZN will be the only one that can pull this industry out of it's tail spin. It's the only one big enough to meet customer demands.