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observation on your part and there's a good
reason why you don't see many people saying the stock is
The contributors to this board can
be grouped into roughly three categories:
First group is composed of relatively long-term holders
who are by definition way down on their investment.
(Actually, a few very long term investors like RAUGAR and MK
are way up on their initial investments.) In many
cases we purchased additional shares in an attempt to
cost-average down our positions. To us in this group, the
predominant question is whether we should do some tax-loss
selling or just keep holding on. That's why you don't
hear us discussing the stock in terms of how
attractively priced it is. Also, we know there are still too
many unknowns and have been burned too many
The second, much smaller group is composed of
individuals who have never owned the stock but spend alot of
time on the board telling shareholders how stupid they
are. I don't understand the motivation behind this
group, but I guess they spend their nights reviewing the
New Lows list so that they can properly plan the next
day's activities. Don't look for many Buy
recommendations from this group.
The third group,
still very small, is composed of people like Kitty and
Cleo who owned the stock and got burned at some point.
They sold a good while ago which in retrospect was
smart. They also drop in occasionally to tell the rest
of us how stupid we are. We don't understand this
group either, except we think cleo must work at a 7/11
based on the timing of her posts. Probably won't hear
any buys from this group either.
you said it all again, but as usual,oh so
eloquently and proffesional sounding. The people who post on
this board are definitely in the groups you mentioned.
I have the misfortune to fit into the first group
but I have learned one thing at least from investing
in the stock market...you must constantly analyize
the current market conditions and make the best
decision you can about your postions with all the
information you can gather and then, play your hand. After
you see what is dealt you, you look at the facts
again and have another go at it. Those who don't
understand the fickle nature of stocks need a good money
market savings account for their money and a new way of
life. I, along with others do not appreciate the "I
told you so types" who always seem to have the
proverbial 20-20 hind sight. I would like to see all their
other posts to see just how accurate they really are.
You could take the stock opinions of a street person
and single out the ones that prove to be on target
(after the fact) and make them appear to be a brilliant
forcaster of the markets...but what does that prove? I
really appreciate the opinions of those who are in the
same tub as many of us are and even the informed
opinions of some of the other non-stock-holding posters
who have the sole intent of helping us with their
past experience and theie vast knowledge. I do not
appreciate those who fit the other two groups that are often
"hecklers" who can sometimes be heard to say "investors
who...deserve to loose all". What garbage! They should spend
more time pulling the wings off flies and
Sorry to vent so much on the board but I submit we
would all be better for it if all the posters would use
their collective knowledge to help us all to make the
best investing decisions possible. Thanks to all who
use their energy posting informative and interesting
dialouge on this and other boards.
Good luck, happy
investing and happy holidays.
I am a subset of group two. I was fortunate
enough to resist the temptation to buy this pig for its
high yield, but by no means am I heckling anyone who
did. It's one of those 'but for the grace of God,
there go I moments'. I do find it refreshing that some
of the posts lately are starting to focus on a
discussion of how to avoid costly investment mistakes like
'averaging down', and holding all the way through a long
decline. The long time posters here, especially the
long-suffering ones, would do well to take advantage of this
opportunity to reflect on ways to use this experience as a
lesson learned the hard way, and stop wasting their time
speculating about dividends, REIT status, law-suits, etc. It
is a complete waste of time, energy, and the boards
resources to have a twenty-four hour a day circle jerk
about what is going on fundamentally with this company.
Its all so tragically simple: this stock has been in
a downtrend, and should have been sold a long time
ago. Anyone who didn't do so is wrong. Period. When
the share price starts to rise, it will be time to
buy. Period. It is not more complicated than that.
People who don't have the discipline to sell losers and
buy winners should be in a money market acct., and
stop bitchin' about how Doc is the Anti-Christ. No one
made you ride this thing down except you, and only YOU
can prevent forest fires. Now fire away. I'm sure my
post is exactly what some of you didn't want to hear
on Christmas eve, but it is my story, and I'm
stickin' to it. Merry Christmas, and better luck next year
to all PZN'ers.
I hear you. I am seriously evaluating my stock picking ability. This one definitely falls under the "if it sounds to good to be true" category when considering the yield we were supposed to get.
I can't speak for others but if I had to develop
a worst-case scenario for a new investor it would
be as follows:
You buy Monday at $5.75.
Blackstone announces later that week they've put in $300mm
at $5. California never gets fixed. Interest rates
keep going up. Some good Wardens quit out of disgust.
Prison Operations problems increase. One year later
we're a $3 stock. Blackstone buys the rest of the
company for $4.
I think that's the ultimate
downside from here. While that downside doesn't look that
bad (considering I think we could be a $14 stock in a
year if alot of things went well) you have to remember
that the current shareholders are tapped-out,
pissed-off and run-down so there is no buying pressure
coming from us. Plus, the tax-loss selling is vicious
and will continue through next Friday unless there is
a favorable announcement.
potential New investors who I think are (correctly) taking
the position that they want to see Blackstone's terms
before they make a committment.
As far as fear of
BR, I don't think even our worst detractors believe
that's a possibility. If Blackstone fell through we'd
just stop all capital expenditures, cut the dividend
to Litt's $1.50 - $1.60 and maybe deREIT. Probably
would be a $3 stock for a while but no BR. JMO.