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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • tubo55 tubo55 Dec 23, 1999 7:10 PM Flag

    is anyone here bullish

    on the share price. I'm knew to the board and
    have been reading some past posts and it dawned on me
    that no one to my recollection has said they thought
    the share price would go up from here. In other words
    I do not recall a post recently where someone said
    "I'm buying".

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    • I.R. is Investor Relations at this point we are all in the guessing phase...

    • observation on your part and there's a good
      reason why you don't see many people saying the stock is
      "a buy".

      The contributors to this board can
      be grouped into roughly three categories:

      The
      First group is composed of relatively long-term holders
      who are by definition way down on their investment.
      (Actually, a few very long term investors like RAUGAR and MK
      are way up on their initial investments.) In many
      cases we purchased additional shares in an attempt to
      cost-average down our positions. To us in this group, the
      predominant question is whether we should do some tax-loss
      selling or just keep holding on. That's why you don't
      hear us discussing the stock in terms of how
      attractively priced it is. Also, we know there are still too
      many unknowns and have been burned too many
      times.

      The second, much smaller group is composed of
      individuals who have never owned the stock but spend alot of
      time on the board telling shareholders how stupid they
      are. I don't understand the motivation behind this
      group, but I guess they spend their nights reviewing the
      New Lows list so that they can properly plan the next
      day's activities. Don't look for many Buy
      recommendations from this group.


      The third group,
      still very small, is composed of people like Kitty and
      Cleo who owned the stock and got burned at some point.
      They sold a good while ago which in retrospect was
      smart. They also drop in occasionally to tell the rest
      of us how stupid we are. We don't understand this
      group either, except we think cleo must work at a 7/11
      based on the timing of her posts. Probably won't hear
      any buys from this group either.

      Good luck.

      • 3 Replies to RetiredPaperman
      • you said it all again, but as usual,oh so
        eloquently and proffesional sounding. The people who post on
        this board are definitely in the groups you mentioned.
        I have the misfortune to fit into the first group
        but I have learned one thing at least from investing
        in the stock market...you must constantly analyize
        the current market conditions and make the best
        decision you can about your postions with all the
        information you can gather and then, play your hand. After
        you see what is dealt you, you look at the facts
        again and have another go at it. Those who don't
        understand the fickle nature of stocks need a good money
        market savings account for their money and a new way of
        life. I, along with others do not appreciate the "I
        told you so types" who always seem to have the
        proverbial 20-20 hind sight. I would like to see all their
        other posts to see just how accurate they really are.
        You could take the stock opinions of a street person
        and single out the ones that prove to be on target
        (after the fact) and make them appear to be a brilliant
        forcaster of the markets...but what does that prove? I
        really appreciate the opinions of those who are in the
        same tub as many of us are and even the informed
        opinions of some of the other non-stock-holding posters
        who have the sole intent of helping us with their
        past experience and theie vast knowledge. I do not
        appreciate those who fit the other two groups that are often
        "hecklers" who can sometimes be heard to say "investors
        who...deserve to loose all". What garbage! They should spend
        more time pulling the wings off flies and
        such.

        Sorry to vent so much on the board but I submit we
        would all be better for it if all the posters would use
        their collective knowledge to help us all to make the
        best investing decisions possible. Thanks to all who
        use their energy posting informative and interesting
        dialouge on this and other boards.

        Good luck, happy
        investing and happy holidays.

      • Thank you for your compliment and your comments.

        Are people concerned because of the low stock price, or because they believe the company could go under?

      • <EOM>

    • Year 2000 FFO would support a dividend in the
      range of $1.70 but cash flow wouldn't, especially if
      the leases were negotiated to rates that would allow
      OPCO to remain liquid, right? And what if the big BOP
      contract is pushed into the second half of 2000. Also,
      there seems to be some serious doubt as to whether or
      not the CA. facility could be used for the BOP
      contract anyway - or are you comfortable that it could be?
      AND (sorry) Doc's still building out there,
      right?

      MK, without additional equity and debt injections I
      didn't think they could pay $187mm in dividends next
      year, given all the other stuff I've mentioned. Am I
      wrong?

    • Will someone at LM please tell me what "market perform" means? If the overall market had performed like PZN, I think we'd be competing for street corners to sell apples (and I don't mean iMacs).

    • "without additional equity and debt injections I
      didn't think they could pay $187mm in dividends next
      year, given all the other stuff I've mentioned. Am I
      wrong?"

      Probably not, but Chris Haley recently used $270MM of 2000
      FFO in his model. Throw away $100MM for OPCO and it's
      pretty close.

      To be honest, I have no idea where
      the numbers are anymore. If the overall business
      grosses $1BB, their after tax profit (historic) was about
      11%, or, say, $110MM. Divide by 1 minus tax rate(let's
      say .74) and you get $149MM. Add back depreciation
      ($46.5MM per Haley) and you get $195.5MM of FFO (roughly).
      Reduce that by OCPO's negative cash flow of ???. So, who
      knows? Maybe we'd need $50MM from the SI.

    • You know what I honestly think. I believe that
      the SI talks started off bad, got worse, and at some
      point in the process Doc did just what you said he'd do
      if things didn't straighten out. Basically said
      "screw it". Instead of trying to fix this thing just
      give me an exit strategy. I firmly believe he'll get
      his $20-$25mm and that actually if fine with me. I
      just hope nobody else gets paid off.

      So, the
      answer to your question of Who Needs Blackstone - Doc
      needs him for his exit strategy.

      Unfortunately,
      that negotiation process doesn't work to our advantage
      because Doc (and ML) are looking out for Doc but nobody's
      looking out for us.

      One mystery remains for
      me...I'm convinced it's a done deal. Who is benefitting by
      delaying the process. The extra week or 2 will have cost
      us 2 full points.

    • PZN has approx. $80MM of availability under its
      credit facility at this time. PZN and CCA have been
      burning cash at a very rapid clip. Doc and Jr went on a
      building spree for which we shareholders will be paying
      for several quarters to come. New management and the
      capital infusion are steps in the right direction but the
      exorbitant cost of PZN's debt and equity put them behind the
      8-ball and will conspire to make this stock dead money
      for quite some time. Hate to be so negative but its
      taken me a while to grasp the gravity of the situation
      here. The reality of the SI is that PZN needs them as
      much to bridge the negative cash flow gap until
      occupancy problems are fully rectified rather than for the
      ability to pay the dividend. You and RP have been right
      all along that PZN should de-reit and cease paying
      dividends in order to right the ship and grow profitably
      down the road.

    • <EOM>

    • I told you this six months ago and you told me I
      was crazy. Glad to see that you finally see where Doc
      and Baby Doc have taken this company. Hopefully you
      haven't been taken to the cleaners. I do believe we are
      now near the bottom and once current management is
      gone and the dividend eliminated this stock will
      finally turn around. This assumes that the Board finally
      puts someone in place that the street trusts. We will
      see!!!!

    • No question you were right and maybe I would have
      been swayed by your opinion if you could have
      articulated your case a little bit better other than just
      saying the stock was going to $5.00. I also appreciate
      your heartfelt concern that I didn't get taken to the
      cleaners. While it hasn't been a pleasant experience you
      can sleep peacefully tonight knowing that I'll live
      to fight another day.

    • View More Messages
 
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