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Corrections Corporation of America Message Board

  • GenJackripper GenJackripper Mar 7, 2001 3:55 PM Flag

    Propitious "technicals"?

    The General has noted that today's performance by CXW will likely take its near-term price action above BOTH its 50 & 200 DMAs for the first time since it began closing below $1.00 on 2/20/01 (see CXW's big 3-months chart here on Y!-F w/DMAs superimposed).

    Sometime during the week following President's Day (the General doesn't have the calc'd values of the 50 & 200 DMAs, so he can't pinpoint the precise day they crossed), it appears that the 50 DMA (orange line) crossed above the 200 DMA (green line) and that the 200 DMA is bottoming out and is turning positive (upward slope).

    These are all usually propitious "technical" indicators of better prices ahead.

    Could its timing be, in any way, related to what may be in store when the impending earnings release and CC occurs?

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    • GenJackripper the Great, trust me this thing will take off in the next three months. A couple of contracts are so close you can smell them.

    • At about 12:30 p.m. EST in today's session, when CXW dropped to $0.93, it violated the 3-month old uptrend line, UTL1, that was born on 12/15/00's @ its intra-day (and current 52-week) low of 0.1875. UTL2's value today stood @ 0.933673469.

      It took Mr. Market just 3 additional days past UTL2's demise, to take out UTL1 as well.

      Time-wise, we're back to "square one" to patiently await whatever CXW wants to tell us.

    • As can be noted from today's Detail Quote for CXW here on Y!-F, CXW had a "double-plus ADV" day (109.27% above its current 3-month ADV of 622,590).

      It was also CXW's highest day's volume in almost 9 weeks (since 1/08/01's 1,625,600 shares traded).

      So what's the big deal?, some might say, the stock ended the session DOWN 1.87%. A "down" day on extraordinary volume isn't considered a "positive."

      Considered on a "daily" basis, the General can't argue with that opinion.

      But looking at the past 3-months' record of trading volume, it is evident that the last 17 trading sessions of 2000 had plenty of million-plus share days which are significantly increasing the ADV picture compared with what it's been over the 47 sessions since the beginning of this year.

      That 3-month ADV of 622,590 shares is 54.71% higher than 2001's 47-session ADV of 402,436 shares. By that measure, today's 1,302,900 shares traded exceeds "2001's ADV" by 223.75%, even more impressive.

      It is evident, if one looks at the volume portion of CXW's chart since the beginning of the year, that volume, which had been in the doldrums for about 6 weeks, is, once again, on the rise.

      When viewed on a "weekly" basis thus far this year, higher ADV has preponderantly been associated with higher price movement and lower volume with declining price movement.

      In the table below, the General presents some stats for the ten trading weeks thus far in 2001.

      The data is presented in the following order:

      1. Week-ending date.
      2. ADV for said trading week.
      3. % price change for said week, compared with proximate prior week's closing price.

      "x"s have been employed in an attempt to maintain columnar alignment and integrity and do not imply "multiplication."

      1/05/01: xx686,450, +118.18%
      1/12/01: 1,080,640, +x75.00%
      1/19/01: xx414,725, -x19.05%
      1/26/01: xx253,800, +x11.76%
      2/02/01: xx274,880, -xx4.00%
      2/09/01: xx203,000, -xx7.02%
      2/16/01: xx193,860, -xx3.77%
      2/23/01: xx274,525, -xx4.90%
      3/02/01: xx133,700, -xx1.03%
      3/09/01: xx542,460, +xx9.38%

    • well if you check the large 1 year chart here on Yahoo and put in moving average, it shows CXW above both and the 50 day pentrating the 200 from below...

    • General--I think you're looking at the 50 and 21 DMAs rather than the 200/50, though it only affects the imminence, not the outlook. The 200 is within spitting distance.

      • 1 Reply to pkn4mom
      • If we're both referencing the same chart that the General referred to in message #16901, pkn4mom, namely the Big 3-months chart w/DMAs superimposed, the only DMAs option that Y!-F presents to the viewer is (according to the legend above the top border of the chart, right side) the 50 DMA (orange plot) and the 200 DMA (green plot).

        The General has not known Y!-F to ever offer the option of a 21 DMA plot on its site, here, albeit he is well aware that there are other chart sites that do offer more DMA options.

        As the General said in #16901, not having calc'd the 50 DMA & the 200 DMA values, himself (since he doesn't subscribe to any services that do), the General can not attest to the accuracy of either of the plots here on Y!-F.

        His experience on past occasions where he has calc'd a stock's 50 DMA (adding up 50 closing prices is time consuming enough, the General ain't goin' back through almost 10 months' worth of closing prices to calc the 200 DMA), the exercise has occasionally (albeit infrequently) produced numbers whose plot has been "at variance" with what Y!-F has represented to us.

        In lieu of calc'ing, the General has taken an engineer's scale to the screen of his (not the sharpest imaged) monitor and, accordingly, has scaled the value of the 50 DMA (a/o 3/07/01's plot) to be about 0.94-0.95, and the 200 DMA at about 0.83-0.84.

        Based on those values, it does appear that CXW did trade above both those DMA plots today, as the General allowed was likely to happen going forward, near-term.

        Recently, and for some time now, CXW has been indicating an A/D rating (per IBD) of a "B" (moderate accumulation) versus both WHC's and CRN's "A"s (strong accumulation). At least that had been the situation until a week ago (Thursday, March 1st), when CRN dropped back to a "B," joining CXW in that regard. WHC remains an "A" while their industry group (Commercial Services - Security/Safety) has been fluctuating, RPS-wise, between a "B" and a "C."

35.02+0.30(+0.86%)Jun 30 4:05 PMEDT