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VICTORY ENERGY CORP Message Board

  • printmail01 printmail01 Jun 22, 2008 4:18 PM Flag

    VYEY PR IS MISLEADING

    Take this RR from March 31 as prime example

    Victory Energy Reports Well Comes in at 20% Higher Than Average Production
    Victory Energy Corporation (OTCBB: VYEY) announced today that well #166-6 has established itself as an outstanding well coming in at 294,000 cubic feet per day, 44,000 cubic feet per day higher when compared to an average well's Absolute Open Flow (AOF) testing. This information is based upon the single point test results from Fesco. The single point test flow results report the Absolute Open Flow (AOF) on well #166-6 at 294 MCF per day.

    With today's price of natural gas at $9.80 per MCF, and because of the 20% higher BTU content from the natural gas produced from this field, Victory receives a 20% bonus in the price of each MCF sold. As a result, Victory earns a price 20% higher, or $11.76 per MCF. For a production period of 30 days, this well has the capability of producing approximately $104,000 in total revenue per month.

    NOTICE IS SAYS > Absolute Open Flow (AOF)
    This is NO WAY relates to the Actual Production the well will produce. This well will NEVER produce at AOF totals no well EVER does, it is misleading, and then to add calculations is really misleading. PLUS the production from these wells will DROP over 50% and MORE in some cases after just 10 months. This is very misleading. IMPO

    Now when you go to the Texas RRC, the actual production for this weill 166-6 for the Month of April 2008 was an average of 51.4 mcf per day.
    Monthly Production for Adams "166" Well 6

    Apr-08/1,541/$10.08/$10.35/$12.27/$18,904/$13,989/$1,437/$850/$11,702/51.4

    Column 01: Production Month for Waha Hub Sale
    Column 02: Actual Production for the Month (mcf)
    Column 03: Estimated Waha Index Price ($/MMBtu)
    Column 04: Estimated Waha Index Price ($/mcf)
    Column 05: Estimated Btu Premium Price ($/mcf)
    Column 06: Gross Royalties for Month (100% NRI)
    Column 07: Net Royalties for the Month (75% NRI)
    Column 08: Severance/Ad Valorem/Windfall Taxes
    Column 09: Well Operating Expenses for the Month
    Column 10: Earnings before SG&A and Income Tax
    Column 11: Average Gas Production (mcf/day)

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    • Hey Print,

      Don't forget when it comes to misleading people, how about Glasgow? All those people who bought shares thinking the leases were active, when they weren't. People need to be reminded of this everyday. When the SEC finds out the timeline of Victory claiming they held the leases vs when they stopped paying for them, I would think there's going to be some serious discussions to say the least.
      This onion will be peeled sooner than later.

      Also, after all your numbers corroborated by RRC, people forget they only get 11 cents on the dollar with that BS 15% of 74% net payout.

      • 1 Reply to meanscreen2000
      • VERY Correct. If they get a check for $74k < VYEY only gets about $9k - so lets say they get $10k per month - that is $1.2 million a year - the current market cap is like 2 million already at these levels, and this is before expenses etc... VYEY is overvalued big time at these levels, Now if they get 20 wells online the current price would still be overvalued. They LOST $1 Million last Qtr and added like 50% to the OS shares or something. VYEY is overvalued IMO

    • I disagree with you, on the decline rate.

      • 1 Reply to manonzmoon
      • HERE ARE THE FACTS - Lets look at the 10 wells we have production data for. Look at the older wells were we have a full years worth of data and you can see it more clearly. They all start out with 150-175+/- mcfpd , you always have few spikes early on, and the first month may not be a full months production , but look at the older wells this is how it goes in the Adams Ranch Canyon Sandstone 5000' gas wells - they LOSE major production in first year and keep falling until they level out at about 50 mcfpd+/-. These are the FACTS.

        http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/onlineservices/index.html

        Monthly Production for Adams "127" Well 12
        Apr-07 / 97.8
        May-07 / 137.9
        Jun-07 / 130.1
        Jul-07 / 128.0
        Aug-07 / 164.6
        Sep-07 / 223.4
        Oct-07 / 147.1
        Nov-07 / 133.3
        Dec-07 / 138.7
        Jan-08 / 88.1
        Feb-08 / 82.8
        Mar-08 / 75.0
        Apr-08 / 61.9

        Monthly Production for Adams "127" Well 11
        May-07 / 168.6
        Jun-07 / 146.7
        Jul-07 / 144.3
        Aug-07 / 180.1
        Sep-07 / 230.3
        Oct-07 / 159.6
        Nov-07 / 139.9
        Dec-07 / 133.9
        Jan-08 / 82.0
        Feb-08 / 75.9
        Mar-08 / 61.2
        Apr-08 / 59.2

        Monthly Production for Adams "127" Well 13
        Aug-07 / 98.5
        Sep-07 / 244.3
        Oct-07 / 172.1
        Nov-07 / 143.9
        Dec-07 / 138.7
        Jan-08 / 83.9
        Feb-08 / 81.0
        Mar-08 / 71.7
        Apr-08 / 66.1

        Monthly Production for Adams "127" Well 14
        Oct-07 / 105.1
        Nov-07 / 142.4
        Dec-07 / 145.5
        Jan-08 / 95.7
        Feb-08 / 80.2
        Mar-08 / 67.6
        Apr-08 / 63.0

        Monthly Production for Adams "127" Well 15
        Dec-07 / 101.6
        Jan-08 / 90.8
        Feb-08 / 85.3
        Mar-08 / 83.0
        Apr-08 / 65.0

        Monthly Production for Adams "155" Well 2
        Jan-08 / 107.0
        Feb-08 / 91.1
        Mar-08 / 183.6
        Apr-08 / 43.3

        Monthly Production for Adams "155" Well 3
        Jan-08 / 105.3
        Feb-08 / 95.8
        Mar-08 / 177.3
        Apr-08 / 25.0

        Monthly Production for Adams "166" Well 4
        Apr-08 / 41.8

        Monthly Production for Adams "166" Well 5
        Apr-08 / 40.2

        Monthly Production for Adams "166" Well 6
        Apr-08 / 51.4