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  • ClackClack ClackClack Apr 28, 2003 1:04 PM Flag

    Crazy market:

    Amazon has been behaving strangely. I don't short stocks, but if I did, I'd short Amazon. It is going to take a hit at some point. Market has been bullish in a number of areas lately. I think Amazon is lucking out on that -at some point the market will start to distinguish a little better.

    Ever get into OXM? Look at the recent news.


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    • ClackClack: Some guys have all the luck. I don't know how well you do in your other stock picks, but when it comes to apparel companies, you appear to have the magic touch. I have continued to track OXM but it never went down enough for me to want to buy it-to my current regret. I figure you may want to send me a finders fee or other token amount for the referral but you would probably prefer to repay me in "soft dollars" perhaps by telling me another stock you like.

      Seriously, I understand that Tommy Bahama's parent company, Viewpoint International was a private concern and therefore you don't have access to its financial statements. My experience with acquisitions is that the biggest risk is that the buyer simply pays way too much. After this acquisition is completed and Oxford issues its next finincial statement I would look at the balance sheet and see how much "accounting goodwill" was recorded and then try to determine if the expected increase in earnings justifies that figure. Large amounts of goodwill and small increases in earnings usually result in later extra-ordinary charges.

      Finally, I am struck at how quickly Wall Street decides that an acquisition is going to be successful. They aren't going to wait for proof. I remember a short while back when J. M. Smucker Co. bought Proctor and Gambles' Crisco and peanut butter businesses

      . If I remember correctly, the stock very quickly went from somewhere around $20 to the low $40's. It now trades in the mid $30' and they have about $500,000,000 goodwill on their balance sheet.

      I have continued to buy ITIC as high as $22.06 last week. The price hasn't moved up much yet but the earnings have not been reported in Investors Business Daily, The Wall Street Journal or Value Line. IBD and/or VL has to raise their ratings on the stock so that the mindless people who don't know what they are doing will buy it or it may not do much. I am also doing pretty well in NPK and have posted many messages on its board if you can't get enough of my voluminous messages.

      Good luck to you and let me know when you decide to buy another apparel company. I will buy it sight unseen.

      • 1 Reply to pmlljl
      • <<Good luck to you and let me know when you decide to buy another apparel company. I will buy it sight unseen. >>

        LOL. I just feel lucky. The truth is I only have 200 shares, what I bought to start with.

        When it fell to the low 22's in Feb I was about to buy more but found other compeling places to put my money - of course OXM turned right around back up and hung there in the 25ish range. The truth is I figured I would have plenty of time to add shares here and there along the way.

        As you note, there is no way to know if getting Tommy Bahama is good or bad for now. I figure it is going to give the stock the buzz it never had though and that will be good for it regardless. Down the line as you note we will see what the financials have to say.

        I could give you some tips on other stocks but they are seriously risky. But potentially seriously rewarding. I balance my risky plays with conservative ones - it works for me usually. I think Calpine (CPN) is going to do very well. I am long 15000 shares at the moment and have a very large paper profit. It's around $5 now - The whole Utility/IPP sector is beating off the dogs that have been on it and is rebounding it. Calpine is the best of the bunch IMHO - I think it is the safest play in the sector. I have also nearly doubled my money in MIR - holding 8000 shares at the moment - just sold 3K - a much more risky play - but if it gets through its troubles it should move from up to around $5 I think - it has been exploding the last few days. I also think Duke power is a very good long term play from here - I only have 400 shares, with a basis close to $16 but expect to hold this long term. I am really big on amny others in the utilities - I think they have been overly beaten up - but there are also some like El Paso and reliant and Dynergy that I am avoiding.

        Sure wish I had loaded up on more OXM!

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