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  • sidney_geeder sidney_geeder • May 9, 2004 3:01 PM Flag

    Now That

    Now that the full Q1 results are out and the stock has begun to head south, perhaps some folks will finally "get religion."

    Why overpay?
    History shows that this is a good solid $20-$25 stock. The last time it headed for $30 was 1998 ... and it saw $10 to $11 two years later. IMO we could be heading for a repeat or worse.

    Realestate stocks, especially the refi business (title insurance), are going to spend the next 5+ years in the toilet. With the 10 year bond now up a full point in just the past two months, I wouldn't be surprised to see ITIC trade at or below book value over concern about Q2 results, then on down to $20 in the second half of the year. Anywhere below $18 or so I'll be a buyer. But not at twice that!

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    • pmlljl pmlljl • May 14, 2004 1:46 PM Flag

      sidney: You sound like a long-term investor with some actual common sense. I expect that your analysis is about right. I had some real good luck with ITIC. I started buying at about $14.50 and continued to buy it as it rose. My average cost was about $18 and my average sales price was about $30. That just about reflects what you have said about where it has value and where it is overpriced.

      I am out of it now, but I would seriously consider buying it again below $20 and at $15, I would load up.

      Good luck to you.

      • 1 Reply to pmlljl
      • cash_the_other_short_play cash_the_other_short_play • May 18, 2004 2:18 PM Flag

        pmlljl, sounds like you made a great move getting into this stock at 18. Given the realestate bubble is one second away from imploding title isnurance is not the business that most epoele want into! And you exited at just the right time.

        I love the idea of the title business but I don't want to go against the market. the recent price action only confirms that its worth the wait for prices in the teens.

        Good luck to you too. Sounds like you've had your share already!

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71.33-0.16(-0.22%)May 24 4:00 PMEDT