Interesting points on both sides. FWIW I fall somewhere between the two of you. I'm not worried about the effect of the real-estate downturn on ITIC's long-term business. ITIC has seen all that before, and their exposure is only to financing turnover, so they run much less risk than say lenders or leveraged REITs. But in past downturns earnings did drop significantly for a year or two. Folks with near-term goals might not be able to wait. At that point, I might be able to pick up more shares cheap. So I'm not buying at 40.
(ITIC has nearly $40/share in investments alone -- almost all bonds. But I haven't noticed anyone but myself putting much significance on that, so I don't think I have to pay anything for those bonds.)
Unfortunately, if the coming (and yeah I think it's coming) earnings interruption takes another couple of years to materialize, 'cheap' might be $60/share. But I've got 2/3 of my money in this bad boy already, so I guess I'll be patient.