Me too, me too. Here's my fantasy: let pmmjll's scenario come true over the next year, and let ITIC's earnings go to zero as a consequence. I picture panicky shareholders (several dozen would constitute a massive stampede in this stock) unloading the 'dead' stock for whatever they can get -- $30, $20, $10 per share. I see headlines in the IBD: "Title Insurance Industry -- No Future?" Buying ITIC at $10 would be the last actual investment decision I'd ever have to make.
I believe that house prices are too high here and wouldn't be caught dead "investing" in residential real estate. It seems to me that we're in an asset bubble of some sort.
Nevertheless, I'd buy more ITIC if its price dropped some. How much "some" is I don't know right now.
Yes it's so comforting to hear that there's no inflation. Unless you are belong to one of those odd households who spend money on energy, housing, health care, education, or investments.
Still, the Fed has been tightening rates for the past year. The give-away to the carry traders has been cut back substantially. Long term rate increases seem delayed, perhaps due to denial from folks who refuse to shrink their lending volumes. It will catch up, perhaps in a shock of several points in a few months. That will collapse housing prices substantially, the contractors and insurance companies will start sueing each other, there will be a bumper crop of title insurance claims, all the fallout we had 14-15 years ago.
ITIC doesn't do that much business in super-yuppie areas, but it will have a tough year or two. It's hard to imagine that the price won't fall if all that happens. But it's gotta happen within a year or two, or the price likely won't 'fall' below today's offer.
Anyway best of luck.
Interesting points on both sides. FWIW I fall somewhere between the two of you. I'm not worried about the effect of the real-estate downturn on ITIC's long-term business. ITIC has seen all that before, and their exposure is only to financing turnover, so they run much less risk than say lenders or leveraged REITs. But in past downturns earnings did drop significantly for a year or two. Folks with near-term goals might not be able to wait. At that point, I might be able to pick up more shares cheap. So I'm not buying at 40.
(ITIC has nearly $40/share in investments alone -- almost all bonds. But I haven't noticed anyone but myself putting much significance on that, so I don't think I have to pay anything for those bonds.)
Unfortunately, if the coming (and yeah I think it's coming) earnings interruption takes another couple of years to materialize, 'cheap' might be $60/share. But I've got 2/3 of my money in this bad boy already, so I guess I'll be patient.
pjv2xyw9dww4b5: It is nice to know who the buyers and sellers are. Lets see, the stock has traded 700 shares and you bought 700 shares. That means you are the MARKET. Now if we could find out who the seller(s) were.