Based on the action of the market, you must have the bear working overtime. Help! I am ready to capitulate.
Because you like ITIC and ANAT, I thought you might like another insurer, ORI. Book value is about $19, the yield is about 6.5% and there are no intangibles on the balance sheet. It is currently trading around $10.
I think you and I may want to form a mutual fund that invests in insurance companies. If you are interested we could use the code name PJ-PML until we are ready to launch it.
Gross mortgage guaranty claim and loss adjustment expense reserves at 03/31/2008 were $856.7 million (page 25).
Searching for "exposure trends" in takes you to the top of page 21, where tables about the mortgage guaranty business begin. (It is interesting that new bulk insurance production for the quarter ending 03/31/2008 was negligible.)
As of 03/31/2008, risk in force was: $19,747.0 million for traditional primary $2,299.4 million for bulk primary $500.4 million for other That makes the reserve a little less than 4% of total risk in force.
The recent dividend increase is management's "don't worry!" signal:
"Capitalization - Old Republic’s total capitalization of $4,443.6 million at March 31, 2008 consisted of debt of $66.9 million and common shareholders' equity of $4,376.7 million. Changes in the common shareholders’ equity account reflect primarily operating results for the period then ended, dividend payments, and changes in market valuations of invested assets. Old Republic has paid cash dividends to its shareholders without interruption since 1942, and has increased the regular annual rate in each of the past 26 years. The annual dividend rate is typically reviewed and approved by the Board of Directors in the first quarter of each year. In establishing each year’s cash dividend rate the Company does not follow a strict formulaic approach. Rather, it favors a gradual rise in the annual dividend rate that is largely reflective of long-term consolidated operating earnings trends. Accordingly, each year’s dividend rate is set judgmentally in consideration of such key factors as the dividend paying capacity of the Company’s insurance subsidiaries, the trends in average annual statutory and GAAP earnings for the six most recent calendar years, and management’s long-term expectations for the Company’s consolidated business. At its February, 2008 meeting, the Board of Directors approved a new quarterly cash dividend rate of 17 cents per share effective in the second quarter of 2008, up from 16 cents per share, subject to the usual quarterly authorizations."
pmlljl, The bear has entered an order to buy more ORI. His limit is $9.50. Some technical analyst told him that there is "support" at $0.00 for the ORI share price! I hope that this is not inside information that he is using.