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Investors Title Co. Message Board

  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Oct 20, 2008 4:20 PM Flag

    CEG Part Deux

    pmlljl,

    Thanks for the dividend info! Unfortunately I dithered and am not in for Round 4. I see depressing signs of intelligence* in the price today. Maybe I've seen my last round.

    ----

    *Well, either common sense has latched onto this arbitrage like a malevolent lamprey, or else CEG is just up with the market.

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    • astral:

      I think the volatility in CEG may be turning down. Without the threat of a higher buy out offer by EDF, I don't think CEG will go much above $26 and with the offer by Berkshire, I am guessing it will not go too much below $24-$25.

      So I may be in it from now until the sale is completed. If so, that will get me somewhere around 25% to 30%. I can live with that. I can still hope that some disconnected speculators take it outside these boundaries and give me some more opportunities to trade. I already have substantial profits from the first three rounds and round four is looking good. I wish I could find more deals like this.

      • 1 Reply to pmlljl
      • Well, I finally got in for Round 4 at 24. I make that almost 20% annual return with the dividends if nothing goes wrong. Not nearly as good as you've got, but I like having some of my money (possibly) available in case the market drops.

        Apart from this arbitrage I'm pretty much loaded with stocks now. But if the S&P 500 goes to 400 or something, the arbitrage might still be liquid with little penalty. Or not, and that's ok too.

    • pmlljl,
      Bidding "too low" seems to get a fill now and then. I'm going to keep any ORI bids I make next week $6.50 or less.

    • pj:

      If it was up to me, I would fill the holds of all the ships with overpaid executives and then sink the ships.

      I have had the time machine on monitor and programed it to alert me when we reached 1974.
      I received a weak signal and when I checked, it alerted me to the fact that only selected stocks have reached 1974 levels. For example, this morning I got a partial fill on FLXS at $7.50. Book value is more than $16 and the yield was about 7%. It is the lowest I have ever seen it. SCX got down below $11, but I did not get an execution at my limit of $10. We got close on ANAT, but not to my limit of $60. Please ask the bear to put some fright into the trick or treaters tonight so that they sell and fill my orders on Monday.

    • Mmmm, thanks. If you believe that the KRW is coming back from its little vacation, then you might want to look at Posco ADRs around 40 US.

      Then again, after this crazy Kumbi thing, you may feel that my enthusiasm for Korean stocks at 4 times earnings is misplaced!

    • pj:

      Hang in there, and you might get ORI at your price. Every time I have raised my bids lately, I got an execution and then the stocks moved lower again.

      I fired up the time machine today and discovered that we have built up some very high momentum. For your information, Russia is approaching 1917. Japan has returned to the shogun era. Most of the emerging economies are now submerging economies. The U. S. is rapidly approaching 1974, that golden era of cheap stocks. I imagine that the polar bear has returned to be a very young cub. Do you want me to turn off the machine before his mother shows up on your doorstep?

    • pmlljl,
      My ORI limit was only $6.50. I was a little surprised to see that the share price got as low as $6.77.

    • Yeah, I don't get that. Why pass up a sure 29 in favor of a pretty-likely 27.40 or so? And but if you weren't hoping for the Buffett deal, then why sell? Stopped out maybe? I dunno.

      Another thing just woke me up, though. I haven't really looked at the EdF deal, but if it does go through, won't Constellation have something like $25 per share in cash? And then whatever bag of crap is left over, is the value of that stuff negative or positive? I'm gonna get up early and see if I can figure that out.

    • pmlljl,
      Here are some of my orders and limits:
      ANAT 55.00
      BBGI 1.10
      EBF 6.00
      ORI 6.00
      TUES 1.30, 1.20
      Too low?

    • astral & pj:

      I also got an execution on ORI at $8.00. After dropping as low as $6.77 this morning, it is now back up to $8.07. Can you believe it? I have at actual (probably temporary) paper profit. What am I going to do with that enormous gain of almost 1%? Maybe I should take a cruise on a luxury liner until the new uptick rule comes into effect.

    • pj:

      With stock prices at their current levels, there will be many companies that won't want to face their shareholders.

      Years ago, two other investors were trying to get Salem Corporation to hold an annual meeting. Salem was run by the notorious Victor Posner and had not held a meeting for about three years. They finally agreed to hold an annual meeting at Posner's office in Miami Beach at 5:00 P. M. on Friday, the day before Christmas. How is that for stockholder friendly? You may want to use some of these points to sell CEOs to use the bear's annual meeting services in the frozen Arctic.

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