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  • astral_tsar astral_tsar Oct 20, 2008 4:20 PM Flag

    CEG Part Deux

    pmlljl,

    Thanks for the dividend info! Unfortunately I dithered and am not in for Round 4. I see depressing signs of intelligence* in the price today. Maybe I've seen my last round.

    ----

    *Well, either common sense has latched onto this arbitrage like a malevolent lamprey, or else CEG is just up with the market.

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    • astral:

      I think the volatility in CEG may be turning down. Without the threat of a higher buy out offer by EDF, I don't think CEG will go much above $26 and with the offer by Berkshire, I am guessing it will not go too much below $24-$25.

      So I may be in it from now until the sale is completed. If so, that will get me somewhere around 25% to 30%. I can live with that. I can still hope that some disconnected speculators take it outside these boundaries and give me some more opportunities to trade. I already have substantial profits from the first three rounds and round four is looking good. I wish I could find more deals like this.

      • 1 Reply to pmlljl
      • Well, I finally got in for Round 4 at 24. I make that almost 20% annual return with the dividends if nothing goes wrong. Not nearly as good as you've got, but I like having some of my money (possibly) available in case the market drops.

        Apart from this arbitrage I'm pretty much loaded with stocks now. But if the S&P 500 goes to 400 or something, the arbitrage might still be liquid with little penalty. Or not, and that's ok too.

    • pj & astral:

      As a newly made member of the ITIC mafia I recommend that we contact Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson and request that they use extraordinary powers to halt all trading of all securities on a global basis until the U. S. Congress passes a law that requires every future trade to occur on an uptick. This policy should be enforced by a new commission which I think should be headed by the maestro, Alan Greenspan.

      If this plan is successful, I estimate that the U. S. stock markets wil recover there losses and be making new highs no later than the year 2050.

    • astral & pj:

      I also got an execution on ORI at $8.00. After dropping as low as $6.77 this morning, it is now back up to $8.07. Can you believe it? I have at actual (probably temporary) paper profit. What am I going to do with that enormous gain of almost 1%? Maybe I should take a cruise on a luxury liner until the new uptick rule comes into effect.

    • pmlljl,
      My ORI limit was only $6.50. I was a little surprised to see that the share price got as low as $6.77.

    • pj:

      Hang in there, and you might get ORI at your price. Every time I have raised my bids lately, I got an execution and then the stocks moved lower again.

      I fired up the time machine today and discovered that we have built up some very high momentum. For your information, Russia is approaching 1917. Japan has returned to the shogun era. Most of the emerging economies are now submerging economies. The U. S. is rapidly approaching 1974, that golden era of cheap stocks. I imagine that the polar bear has returned to be a very young cub. Do you want me to turn off the machine before his mother shows up on your doorstep?

    • pmlljl,
      Bidding "too low" seems to get a fill now and then. I'm going to keep any ORI bids I make next week $6.50 or less.

    • Mmmm, thanks. If you believe that the KRW is coming back from its little vacation, then you might want to look at Posco ADRs around 40 US.

      Then again, after this crazy Kumbi thing, you may feel that my enthusiasm for Korean stocks at 4 times earnings is misplaced!

    • astral_tsar,
      That may have been "too much information" (..and then I saw a 1-share certificate in my sock drawer... blah blah....) (!)

    • :-)

      No, not at all! I remember it, the parent FNF spun itself off from FIS in a reverse-missing-sock transaction.

    • pmlljl,
      The bear has bought some GDOCF.PK at 96 cents. The spot market for their boats is quite weak, so the bear plans to move ANAT headquarters onto one of the Golden Ocean ships to achieve "synergy" and stuff like that. I hope that the Moodys do not mind operating ANAT (as puppets of the bear) from the hold of a dry cargo ship anchored at the North Pole.

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