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Hussman Strategic Growth Message Board

  • hypeblaster hypeblaster May 31, 2014 2:18 PM Flag

    Some discipline...

    From latest WMC: "A side note. It's quite accurate to observe that the recent half-cycle has been challenging for us, first because of our direct miss in the interim of our 2009-2010 stress-testing, and then because the resulting ensemble models subtly removed certain bubble-sensitive features that were part of our pre-2008 methods – mostly relating to what I called “trend uniformity” during the late-1990’s bubble. Repeated bouts of QE forced us to reintroduce similar bubble-sensitive features as an overlay (though nothing in the historical data encourages the attempt to speculate in a bubble once extremely overvalued, overbought, overbullish features emerge).... "

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