Yes the best scenario for us if the market is down or flat from now till then. My prediction is that our market cap increases or remains the same then yes they will need to buy more than 3 million shares....
Btw - if my assumptions are correct, the buyers for the index tracker funds will need to acquire by the end of June at least four million of around ten million shares not in the hands of funds more likely to be looking to buy than to sell -
31,488,204 shares outstanding on December 31, 2012 (from the 10-K)
12,565,501 reported via SEC filings for Q4, including -
..... 4,700,366 - FMR
..... 2,433,319 - RA Capital
..... 1,483,870 - Ayer Capital
..... 1,175,920 - Bessemer Venture Partners
8,711,386 held by non-reporting Venture Capital shareholders
21,276,887 in total = 67.57% institutional ownership
Normally one might expect at least part of the demand to be met by investors with Short positions. But given the likely impact of the results due mid-year from the pivotal EU clinical trial it would seem unwise to be Short at that point.
In 2011 our free-float-adjusted market cap would have been about $182 million Our corresponding weighting within the index dictated accumulation by the index tracker funds of about two million shares.
Our free-float-adjusted market cap is currently about $238 million, and can be expected to be considerably higher by the end of May, the point at which the free-float-adjusted market cap for included companies is calculated in order to determine relative weighting.
My gut feeling is that the tracker funds will need at least four million shares this June.