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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

  • rehdvm2004 rehdvm2004 Apr 27, 2013 5:30 PM Flag

    April 30th WL Presents . . .

    Will be interesting and has already been carefully fashioned. His presentation should be preceded by a headline or two.

    One headline that I anticipate is 100 patients (full enrollment) in NTM. That would be one day shy of a full year since the majority of the 18 major pulmonary centers each began enrolling. At a rate of one per month, slightly more than 5 per center would have to be entered into the trial to make the 100 mark. I think the centers from Maryland south to the three in Florida, around the Gulf of Mexico and into the farm areas of the midwest will have the most cases. The exception would be Stanford and CA out west. CA is still the largest agrabusiness economy in the US and NTM comes from the soil, but they also have the most interactive demographic with bird populations which is the other source of NTM. My Dad used to feed the birds at his apartment complex until they made him stop because the "younger" old guy next door got MAC. The Long Beach public health people told him to stop feeding the birds on his balcony and in the local park. Birds poop where they eat and that harbors and aerosolizes fungi and NTM. Any NTM news will be the beginning of the beginning.

    If the Longs should notice on the Proxy statement also, that the executive bonus situation has a provision for "over performance." They can actually earn an extra 25% or more for meeting regulatory and clinical milestones. That represents a true incentive for reaching milestones on time.

    The pneumonia, Shire, buyout by big pharma, Iplex and other slices of baloney are still prevelent. But why would current INSM management have taken on debt and enhanced their stock position so dramatically since 2011 if they were going to just sell for the short term. WL is 44 years old. He want a legasy and liposome drug delivery is just that. So I doubt any news that strays off Arikace for the next two years. That is the time to licensing on NTM and CF/Pa.

    We shall see on April 30.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • INSM would not expend all this effort in the direction of a developing a master file that would lead to an array of pulmonary drugs and a $ billion company sell out before the potential was realized. The world wide NTM market would be so profitable that it would preclude the owners giving up their shares. Besides, the liposome technology is so "transferable" that most of the INSM employees of today would be gone tomorrow. What big pharma does not have their own personnel in key positions? WL would just move on to his next small cap biopharma that needs direction and clone his efforts. Dr. Gupta and the marketing personnel would go with the buyout. Drucker, Dreschler and others would be expendable. WL has not been timid about giving very reasonable facts about progress and what the future holds for INSM shareholders. Let's see what April 30 brings.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to rehdvm2004
      • Agree. I was thinking about this a couple of days ago. WL is neither 32 or 62...he's 44 and likely wants to grow Insmed to a large company. Perfect age for that...gives him ownership, stability and success that is very satisfying. Yeah, the money doesn't hurt...but the satisfaction of making a company grow IS significant for WL and the BOD. If big success with CF and NTM is visible on the horizon I can see the board making the decision to stick with it to make Insmed everything they can.

        Of course if big pharma offers $6B for INSM...yeah, I can see them going for that :)

        Now...we just need CF and NTM to meet the PIII and PII objectives.

    • I believe it would be a serious flaw in judgment to think that Insmed could not be sold within the next 18 months. Lewis' track record plus the ability of major pharma to overwhelm with an offer (after approval) makes a sale part of the overall future possibilities.

      Sentiment: Buy

 
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